Most of the people writing about the Ukraine crisis are too busy trying to prove that they are on the right side to give decent analysis of it. They are worried about appearing too friendly to either Russia or the United States, and their career concerns are crippling their ability to say anything useful. Let’s talk about what’s really going on.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO expanded eastward:

NATO expansion has been a bi-partisan project. NATO expanded during both the Clinton and Bush administrations. The Bush administration also proposed. to put a missile defense system in Poland.

Russia considers NATO to be a hostile, anti-Russian alliance. It believes that the purpose of NATO is to weaken Russia and eventually to install a pro-western government in Moscow. The Bush administration tried to reassure Russia. It claimed that the missile defense system was just about deterring Iran. But Russia did not believe that argument.

In 2005, Georgia began trying to join NATO, and at the start of 2008, a referendum was held in support of NATO membership. Russia was determined to stop Georgia from joining NATO. Georgia has two separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia:

The separatist regions are friendly to Russia, and Russia guarantees the autonomy of these regions. What happened next is controversial. Russia claims that Georgia invaded South Ossetia, anticipating that America would back it up. The United States claims that Russia baited Georgia into invading South Ossetia. In any case, Russia responded by invading Georgia.

Russia did not annex Georgia and it has not annexed Abkhazia or South Ossetia. Instead, it recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Most importantly, the Russian invasion prevented Georgia from joining NATO. Russia made it clear that it was willing to fight over the issue. The United States was bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2008, and it did not consider Georgia’s NATO status to be worth a direct confrontation with Russia. As of 2022, Georgia is still not a member of NATO.

In 2008, Ukraine’s NATO membership was also discussed. While it was decided that Ukraine and Georgia would not be admitted to NATO immediately, NATO continued to suggest that NATO membership for both countries could happen at some later point.

The Obama administration tried to cool things off. It backed out of the Bush administration’s missile defense plan and tried to “reset” relations with Russia:

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