by Peter Zeihan on January 20, 2025

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In this video, Peter mentioned a total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.5. While this may be the case for certain urban cores, China’s national TFR is closer to 1.0. Still abysmal, though slightly less catastrophic. -ZoG

Everyone knows where I stand on China, but how will Trump’s second term play into that?

Let’s run through China’s situation. The Chinese economic model is dependent upon continuous capital flows. Should that be interrupted, China’s industrial economy could collapse. The demographic picture is bleak too, as birth rates continue to decline and the population ages. And Xi Jinping’s master plan to fix all this is to push workers harder, tighten state controls and micromanage reproduction.

Trump is fixated on reducing trade deficits, but China has been able to sidestep previous deals due to lack of enforcement. Trump needs to work with our other Asian allies to counter China’s influence, and some more faith in defense institutions wouldn’t hurt either.

Overall, the Chinese view Trump as a disruptor and relatively easy to manipulate. While there is some historical truth to that, Trump has shifted US sentiment to be broadly anti-China, so tariffs and supply chain diversification get bipartisan support. The question remains, what will Trump actually accomplish? Tariffs are one thing but planning and developing an alliance network and alternative industrial capacity are a completely different beast.

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YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/kI5onbXSByc

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