Culture Wars/Current Controversies

Democracy’s last Thanksgiving: Experts imagine America in a year if Trump wins the 2024 election

·15 min read
Donald Trump Getty Images/Salon
Donald Trump Getty Images/Salon

Trump and his allies and acolytes are publicly planning to make him America’s first de facto dictator, which will mean the end of the country’s democracy. Their plans are detailed in such documents and organizations as Agenda 47, Project 2025, and the Red Caesar scenario.

Journalists, pundits, the mainstream political class, other experts, and everyday Americans who follow politics and current events closely assume that the average member of the public does so as well. There are decades of research by political scientists and other experts, however, that shows this to not be true. In reality, most Americans are politically disengaged, lack a sophisticated understanding of political matters, are imagistic and emotional, have a difficult time retaining and understanding complex information, do not pay close attention to elections until they decide to vote, and more generally are civically illiterate. More than half of the American public reads below a sixth-grade level.

In all, the average voter also makes political decisions based on “calculations” and concerns that mainstream professional politics watchers — especially liberals and progressives — would find “irrational.” The 2024 election is less than one year away and, at this early point, Trump is tied with or leading President Biden in the polls. Trump is also ahead of Biden in key “battleground” states as well. Given the Electoral College, voter nullification and voter suppression, gerrymandering and other structural failings in American “democracy” there is a very real and growing probability that Donald Trump will return to power in 2025.

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