by Peter Zeihan on February 9, 2023

Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it’s just beginning. To fully understand what is at stake here, we must look at Russia’s motivators and the possible outcomes.

Russia is looking to reclaim enough land for them to reach the geographical strong points that were once part of the Soviet Union. Beyond that, Russia is essentially fighting for its existence. So the only viable option for them is…winning…at whatever cost. That is a terrifying reality.

If the Ukrainians hold Russia off, we’ll see a long, drawn-out war over disputed land until Russia makes enough progress to launch another large-scale assault. For Ukraine to prevail, they would have to destroy sufficient Russian industrial and logistical capacity WITHIN RUSSIA to render another assault impossible.

If the Russians get past Ukraine, they won’t stop there. Poland and Romania will be next, but the Russians know that facing off with NATO isn’t going to end well. And that’s when the nuclear question comes up.

Regardless of how this plays out, we know Russia doesn’t give in lightly. What we’ve seen so far is just a warm-up and the real war is only now starting.