By William S. Lind, Traditional Right

The Prigozhin putsch was a crack in the Russian dam, the dam being the Russian state. So far, the dam is holding. But behind it are the swirling, dirty currents of Fourth Generation war, in the form of all the non-state loyalties and entities that will flood over Europe and Asia if the dam falls.

The proximate cause of Wagner Group’s march on Moscow was an ultimatum to submit to the Russian state. The June 26 Wall Street Journal reported that:

A key trigger was the June 10 defense ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government by July 1, a move to bring Wagner under formal military control. Prigozhin refused.

This alone shows how the authority of the Russian state has been undermined. But the WSJ reported further that:

Prigozhin made his move after state support that once flowed to Wagner was diverted to a new private mercenary group established by state-owned companies such as Gazprom.

So now we see the Russian state is so weak that it must turn, not to the state’s armed forces, but to other mercenary units as alternatives to Wagner.

Then, when major elements of the Wagner group advanced on Moscow, covering about 500 miles with only 100 left between them and the Kremlin, they met almost no opposition from any state security forces. Neither the police nor the Russian army intervened. They were met with only a few attacks from the air, to which they responded by shooting down some helicopters and a jet, killing 13 Russian airmen. And for that, President Putin was constrained to grant them amnesty from prosecution.

President Putin’s popularity within Russia is based on his restoration and maintenance of a strong state after the chaos of the Yeltsin years. The Prigozhin putsch and the state’s weak response to it have undermined his reputation as a guarantor of order. The June 26 New York Times quoted Sergei Markov, a Russian political expert and advisor, as saying,

What he (Putin) always took pride in is the solidity of Russian statehood and political stability. That’s what they loved him for. And it turns out that it doesn’t exist.

The blob and its NATO counterpart can’t wait for President Putin to fall. But who or what will replace him? He has no anointed successor waiting in the wings. Nor does Russia have a political process that is clear, clean and widely accepted by which to find a new leader. It is quite possible that if the man who has run Russia for almost a quarter-century falls from power, the succession process will bring chaos. That, in turn, runs a risk of the RUssian state itself failing.

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