Economics/Class Relations

What’s Going On with Iran and Oil Markets?

by Peter Zeihan on July 25, 2023

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen Iranian oil hit markets at nearly decade-high volumes…but production has remained relatively flat. So what’s really happening here?

Many of the sanctions being placed on Russia were originally used on Iran. And as we’ve seen Russia sell oil at a massive discount, Iran is following suit to come under the sanctions regime (rather than just smuggling it out). Basically, Iran is just selling oil LEGALLY now. Let’s compare Iran’s situation with Russia’s.

Russia is facing an existential threat, so nothing is off the table for them. Iran’s situation isn’t as dire, so they can have some patience. Russia produces most of the stuff needed to survive, so pissing countries off or stepping on toes isn’t a concern for Putin. Iran can’t sour their relationships because they still import a lot of stuff.

This gives Iran a chance to do something the Russians wouldn’t even consider…talking. Meaning there are opportunities for everyone still on the table.

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What's Going On with Iran and Oil Markets? || Peter Zeihan

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