New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse

by Peter Zeihan on June 29, 2023

Today we’re breaking down the new demographic data from the Chinese space. This will allow us to make some much-needed updates to an already bleak assessment…and spoiler alert, it’s going to get a lot worse.

The first graph shows us the demographic picture before any of this new data were released. You’ll notice China already has an incredibly fast-aging population. The number of people entering the workforce can’t keep up with retirees, so even when using the old data, labor costs were increasing faster than any country in history.

The second graph shows us what the new data are saying. The number of children under age five has collapsed, leaving China with nearly half the amount of five-year-olds as fifteen-year-olds. This happened well before COVID drove down birth rates and increased death rates. Even though this is the “official” Chinese data, it’s likely overly optimistic.

So that brings us to our internal extrapolation of the data as seen in graph three. Again this is our interpretation, but it gives you a better look at the Chinese predicament. Leaks out of China suggest the yellow bars don’t even exist; this means China isn’t a country in demographic decay…its a country in the advanced stages of demographic collapse.

China is entering its final decade of operating as a modern industrialized nation. For any foreign business still in China, those sunk costs on factories can only keep you there for so long…and it will only get worse from here on out.

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New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan

Categories: Demographics, Geopolitics

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