According to this analysis, Hillary will beat Trump, and Sanders would have an even better chance against Trump. Read the article Eric Grenier’s of CBC News here.
What seems to be happening now is something that I have been thinking for a while would happen. I always thought that as the demographic groups that normally vote Republican continued to shrink in size and lose power politically, they would become more militant and try to go down with a fight. I figured that at some point the Repugs might actually adopt what has been called the “Sailer strategy” and essentially become the party of “white nationalism lite” (like the Euronationalist parties in Europe, e.g. Front National, Sweden Democrats, etc).
It seems to actually be happening now with the Trump phenomenon, and it’s happening quicker than I thought it would. I suspect if the GOP becomes the party of Trumpism on a permanent basis the neocons will go back to the Democratic Party, since they came from there originally, and join the Hillaryites, or whoever succeeds her. I think this would largely guarantee Democratic dominance in national politics and the US would be essentially a one-party state. The GOP would be a fringe party, and it might split into two fringe parties, one the party of Trumpism and one the party that attempts to continue the old Reagan coalition. Meanwhile, the Democraps would be faced with an insurgency from the left in their own ranks. It’s happening now with Sanders, and it may take on a more radical form in the future.
About ten years ago, I predicted that in the future “conservatism” in the US would look a lot like the neoliberal wing of the Democrats (i.e. Clintonism) and “liberalism” would start to look more like the kind of left you find on college campuses (which seems to be what the Green Party is, and college students are among Sanders biggest supporters). Eventually, the population groups that are normally associated with “conservatism” won’t have any influence in national politics. There just won’t be enough of them. However, they might continue to have influence at the regional and local level (the red zones) and move in a more militant direction (e.g. advocating outright secession or even armed struggle).
Trump is the candidate of the right-wing of the white proletariat, which I don’t think is large enough group to actually win the presidency. particularly if the neocons defect to Hillary or launch a third party, or if the “movement conservative” types launch of third party bid of their own.
I actually think Sanders might do better than Hillary against Trump, as the article from CBC indicates, and might actually have a shot if the Dems were to give him the nomination. I could see Sanders having more crossover appeal to the right than Trump having crossover appeal to the left.