American Decline

China’s economy to outgrow America’s by 2030 as world faces ‘tectonic shift’

National Intelligence Council also sees water and food shortages and suggests world is at a ‘critical juncture in human history’

Chinese economy

The report said: ‘China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030.’ Photograph: Toshifumi Kitamura/AFP

A US intelligence portrait of the world in 2030 predicts that China will be the largest economic power, climate change will create instability by contributing to water and food shortages, and there will be a “tectonic shift” with the rise of a global middle class.

The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends Report, published every five years, says the world is “at a critical juncture in human history”.

The report, which draws in the opinion of foreign experts, including meetings on the initial draft in nearly 20 countries, paints a future in which US power will greatly diminish but no other individual state rises to supplant it.

“There will not be any hegemonic power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multi-polar world,” it says.

The report offers a series of potential scenarios for 2030. It says the best outcome would be one in which “China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global co-operation”. It says the worst is a world in which “the US draws inward and globalisation stalls.”

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1 reply »

  1. 2030!? That’s good old fashioned American optimism for you. Use to get the job done.

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