Recently: Comedians, autocrats, and presidential power. How influence works when the rules break down. &c. | The member’s despatch, Week XXXVIII.

Today: European allies threaten to shoot down Russian aircraft if they keep crossing into NATO territory. Jimmy Kimmel returns to ABC after White House pressure forced his suspension. Kim Jong Un signals openness to talking with the U.S.—while keeping his nukes. A ransomware attack cripples major European airports. U.S. Tech workers scramble as new H-1B visa fees create chaos over the weekend. & The Trump administration has issued an unusual warning against women using acetaminophen during pregnancy.

For members: Nine Western countries just recognized Palestinian statehood. What does that mean?

& New music from Suede …

Inscrutable flying objects

Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, delivered a diplomatic warning at Monday’s emergency UN Security Council session—with a distinctly undiplomatic edge: “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it.”

Estonia called the meeting after three Russian MiG-31 fighters came into Estonian airspace as though they were taking the scenic route on Friday, lingering for 12 minutes in what Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, called an “unprecedentedly brazen” violation.

Tsahkna arrived at the UN armed with radar printouts and photographs of the jets—“carrying missiles and were combat-ready,” he noted—accusing Moscow of lying systematically about “crystal clear” violations of Estonian sovereignty.

The Estonian escapade followed weeks of Russian aircraft treating NATO borders with studied indifference. Poland shot down Russian drones earlier in September—the first time the alliance has fired shots since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022—while Romania dealt with its own drone breach. Both Poland and Estonia have now invoked Article 4 consultations—the alliance’s formal mechanism for urgent consultations when a member’s security is at risk.

Dmitry Peskov dismissed Estonian claims as “empty” and “unfounded.” The pattern suggests Moscow is either deliberately probing Western resolve or has somehow developed an inability to control its own aircraft—which wouldn’t necessarily be less troubling. As Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, noted, “Either scenario is very disconcerting.”

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Meanwhile

• The American TV comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s show will return to the ABC network on Tuesday night after Disney suspended it last week in response to federal pressure. The company acknowledged it made the decision to avoid “further inflaming a tense situation,” calling Kimmel’s comments about Charlie Kirk’s killing “ill-timed and insensitive.” … From this week’s member’s despatch, see “Laughing matters: The speed of federal retribution in America.”
• North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un suggested on Sunday that he remains open to talks with U.S. President Donald Trump if Washington should drop its “obsession” with denuclearization. Kim told North Korea’s parliament he still has “fond memories” of the American president—while declaring his nuclear weapons “irreversible.”
• Companies across Silicon Valley scrambled over the weekend as the U.S. administration’s $100,000 fee for H-1B visas triggered confusion and frantic travel by tech workers rushing back to the United States before the rules would take effect on Sunday—though the White House later clarified that existing visa holders were unaffected.
• European airports confirmed on Monday that a ransomware attack on Collins Aerospace caused the weekend’s widespread flight delays and cancellations at Heathrow, Brussels, and Berlin—the latest reminder of how the aviation industry’s efficiency-driven centralization can create single points of massive failure.
• & Later on Monday, Trump announced that his administration will warn pregnant women against using acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, unless they’re suffering from fevers—linking the painkiller to autism—a development the American president teased, to a certain confusing effect, during a publicly broadcast memorial service for Charlie Kirk on Sunday.

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The state of Palestine

What are nine Western countries suddenly recognizing?

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer appeared on video Sunday evening, speaking with the gravity of a wartime leader: “Today, to revive the hope of peace for the Palestinians and Israelis, and a two-state solution, the United Kingdom formally recognizes the State of Palestine.”

Within hours, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese issued nearly identical statements—followed by Portugal’s foreign minister in New York. On Monday, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, and Monaco announced recognition at a UN summit, bringing the total to nine countries recognizing Palestinian statehood in two days.

The coordinated announcements came as Israel pressed its offensive into greater Gaza City, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are living under conditions of extreme duress, even famine.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded immediately: “There will be no Palestinian state west of the Jordan River”—and promised Israel’s response would come after his planned meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump next week.

The Palestinian Authority, which these nine countries now formally recognize as the government of a sovereign state, controls parts of the West Bank—but not Gaza. There, Hamas—the organization all nine countries acknowledge started the current war and say must have “no role” in governing Palestine as a state—remains in control after nearly two years of this war.

The P.A.’s President Mahmoud Abbas has ruled the West Bank by decree since dismissing the Hamas-led government in 2007, holding no presidential or parliamentary elections since 2006 despite his term officially ending in 2009.

So what, exactly, are the nine recognizing?

The sovereignty gap. Recognition typically requires a state to have territorial control, but the Palestinian Authority hasn’t governed Gaza since Hamas took power by force in 2007. So these countries are recognizing a “state” whose claimed government doesn’t control roughly half its territory—territory currently controlled by the very organization they insist must be eliminated from Palestinian governance.

A democratic-legitimacy void. The Palestinian Authority has held no presidential or parliamentary elections since 2006, with Abbas ruling by decree for over 15 years. He was elected to a four-year term that officially ended in 2009. He’s repeatedly cancelled planned elections since, when his party, Fatah—which has dominated the Palestinian Authority since its creation—appeared likely to lose … most recently in 2021, when Abbas cited Israeli restrictions in East Jerusalem as justification, despite 93 percent voter registration.

Legal recognition mechanics. Under the Montevideo Convention—which established the foundational criteria for statehood in international law—states must have defined territory, permanent population, effective government, and capacity for international relations. While Palestine meets basic criteria, recognizing states where governments lack territorial control raises questions about whether such recognition creates diplomatic obligations these countries cannot honor—like opening embassies in territories they acknowledge are controlled by designated terrorist organizations.

If we look at what the nine recognizing countries—all effective democracies—are actually doing: They’re extending the formal diplomatic recognition typically reserved for functioning sovereign states to a political entity that lacks basic attributes of statehood they’d normally demand. The Palestinian Authority exercises limited autonomy in parts of the West Bank under Israeli military occupation, while Hamas—which these same countries designate as a terrorist organization—controls Gaza independently.

In practice, this creates a diplomatic contradiction: When Britain changes its official documents from “Occupied Palestinian Territories” to “Palestine,” it’s acknowledging sovereignty over territory that includes Gaza, where British officials can’t travel safely and where the government they’re recognizing has no power. The Palestinian Authority they’re empowering represents a “state” through institutions that haven’t faced contested elections in nearly two decades—where the president rules by decree, and where basic democratic accountability mechanisms have been suspended indefinitely.

The nine countries argue that recognition will strengthen the Palestinian Authority against Hamas and advance a two-state solution—but their timing suggests a more specific, and questionable, version of this idea: that purely symbolic recognition can achieve what negotiations have not.

But consider what happened next: Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners in the Israeli government immediately called for annexing the entire West Bank—while Hamas officials praised the recognition as a kind of vindication for them. So much for marginalizing extremists on both sides.

Note: Recognition without full territorial control isn’t entirely unprecedented: From 1940 to 1991, Western countries refused to recognize Soviet control of the Baltic states—maintaining relations instead with governments in exile. The Europeans and Americans recognized Bosnia in 1992 while Serb forces controlled most of its territory and civil war raged. But those were governments fighting to establish or reclaim democratic control.

What’s happening here is different: Nine democracies just recognized a government that hasn’t held elections in nearly two decades and controls only part of its claimed territory, with no apparent plan to change either situation.

Recently: Comedians, autocrats, and presidential power. How influence works when the rules break down. &c. | The member’s despatch, Week XXXVIII.

Today: European allies threaten to shoot down Russian aircraft if they keep crossing into NATO territory. Jimmy Kimmel returns to ABC after White House pressure forced his suspension. Kim Jong Un signals openness to talking with the U.S.—while keeping his nukes. A ransomware attack cripples major European airports. U.S. Tech workers scramble as new H-1B visa fees create chaos over the weekend. & The Trump administration has issued an unusual warning against women using acetaminophen during pregnancy.

For members: Nine Western countries just recognized Palestinian statehood. What does that mean?

& New music from Suede …

Inscrutable flying objects

Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, delivered a diplomatic warning at Monday’s emergency UN Security Council session—with a distinctly undiplomatic edge: “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it.”

Estonia called the meeting after three Russian MiG-31 fighters came into Estonian airspace as though they were taking the scenic route on Friday, lingering for 12 minutes in what Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, called an “unprecedentedly brazen” violation.

Tsahkna arrived at the UN armed with radar printouts and photographs of the jets—“carrying missiles and were combat-ready,” he noted—accusing Moscow of lying systematically about “crystal clear” violations of Estonian sovereignty.

The Estonian escapade followed weeks of Russian aircraft treating NATO borders with studied indifference. Poland shot down Russian drones earlier in September—the first time the alliance has fired shots since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022—while Romania dealt with its own drone breach. Both Poland and Estonia have now invoked Article 4 consultations—the alliance’s formal mechanism for urgent consultations when a member’s security is at risk.

Dmitry Peskov dismissed Estonian claims as “empty” and “unfounded.” The pattern suggests Moscow is either deliberately probing Western resolve or has somehow developed an inability to control its own aircraft—which wouldn’t necessarily be less troubling. As Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, noted, “Either scenario is very disconcerting.”

Advertisement

Meanwhile

• The American TV comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s show will return to the ABC network on Tuesday night after Disney suspended it last week in response to federal pressure. The company acknowledged it made the decision to avoid “further inflaming a tense situation,” calling Kimmel’s comments about Charlie Kirk’s killing “ill-timed and insensitive.” … From this week’s member’s despatch, see “Laughing matters: The speed of federal retribution in America.”
• North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un suggested on Sunday that he remains open to talks with U.S. President Donald Trump if Washington should drop its “obsession” with denuclearization. Kim told North Korea’s parliament he still has “fond memories” of the American president—while declaring his nuclear weapons “irreversible.”
• Companies across Silicon Valley scrambled over the weekend as the U.S. administration’s $100,000 fee for H-1B visas triggered confusion and frantic travel by tech workers rushing back to the United States before the rules would take effect on Sunday—though the White House later clarified that existing visa holders were unaffected.
• European airports confirmed on Monday that a ransomware attack on Collins Aerospace caused the weekend’s widespread flight delays and cancellations at Heathrow, Brussels, and Berlin—the latest reminder of how the aviation industry’s efficiency-driven centralization can create single points of massive failure.
• & Later on Monday, Trump announced that his administration will warn pregnant women against using acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, unless they’re suffering from fevers—linking the painkiller to autism—a development the American president teased, to a certain confusing effect, during a publicly broadcast memorial service for Charlie Kirk on Sunday.

Advertisement

The state of Palestine

What are nine Western countries suddenly recognizing?

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer appeared on video Sunday evening, speaking with the gravity of a wartime leader: “Today, to revive the hope of peace for the Palestinians and Israelis, and a two-state solution, the United Kingdom formally recognizes the State of Palestine.”

Within hours, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese issued nearly identical statements—followed by Portugal’s foreign minister in New York. On Monday, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, and Monaco announced recognition at a UN summit, bringing the total to nine countries recognizing Palestinian statehood in two days.

The coordinated announcements came as Israel pressed its offensive into greater Gaza City, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are living under conditions of extreme duress, even famine.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded immediately: “There will be no Palestinian state west of the Jordan River”—and promised Israel’s response would come after his planned meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump next week.

The Palestinian Authority, which these nine countries now formally recognize as the government of a sovereign state, controls parts of the West Bank—but not Gaza. There, Hamas—the organization all nine countries acknowledge started the current war and say must have “no role” in governing Palestine as a state—remains in control after nearly two years of this war.

The P.A.’s President Mahmoud Abbas has ruled the West Bank by decree since dismissing the Hamas-led government in 2007, holding no presidential or parliamentary elections since 2006 despite his term officially ending in 2009.

So what, exactly, are the nine recognizing?