by Peter Zeihan on September 16, 2024

Taiwan has positioned itself as the dominant player in the semiconductor industry, but what would happen if a conflict with China broke out? Well, if semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities are top of mind, than sure, this should be of concern (but you should also be worried about the thousands of companies and locations that are nowhere near Taiwan that make up the vast bulk of the supply chain).

Let’s move past those concerns for today and break down what Taiwan and companies like TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited) have planned for the future. We’ve seen Taiwan “cooperating” with the US and Japan in recent years, but what’s going on?

The Trump administration demanded that TSMC build the best facility they possibly could in the United States, and it is…not happening. Taiwan’s efforts in the US are little more than a kabuki effort to appease the US and maintain its favor. In contrast, new fabs in Japan are moving along swimmingly, as the Japanese didn’t insist upon the cutting-edge technology that the US wanted.

While the US has companies like Intel trying to replicate (and surpass) the advanced semiconductor technology of Taiwan, progress is difficult and I wouldn’t expect anything to come of it soon in the next year or two. Taiwan understands perfectly the situation that it is in and is playing its cards very strategically.

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