The demographic future of White Californians

Robert Stark

Dec 17, 2023

Part 1

Source: 1CoastalJournal Twitter

Peter Zeihan has a video about why California’s lucky streak is running out. Zeihan points out that immigration is no longer enough to offset California’s ageing population. The other point is that since California’s economy is so heavily linked to globalization, both tech and the shipping industry, its economy will be harmed tremendously by deglobalization. Plus sustained interest rate hikes will hamper the tech industry. California now has a massive budget deficit ($68 billion), after recently having a record surplus. This is mostly due to declining tax revenue, which is a recessionary signal.

California lost a net of 340k people to other states in 2021, and an estimated 871k left in the year 2022 alone. After long concerns about overpopulation, new projections show California’s population remaining about the same until 2060. In contrast with the Rustbelt or even New York, California has managed to sustain past recessions without losing significant population. Until very recently, California has benefited from other parts of the Nation’s exoduses. During the Great Depression, California was a magnet for transplants from all over America, especially those fleeing the Dust Bowl. Then many New Yorkers relocated to LA in the 70s. With this recession, or perhaps depression, California could end up being significantly worse off than the rest of the Nation.

Source: ProducerCities Twitter

While California’s overall population decline is a recent phenomenon, California’s domestic exodus began in the 90s, though was offset by immigration. Plus there were some temporary rebounds in domestic migration. Despite the early 90s recession, the worst of California’s White displacement happened throughout the 90s, including when the economy was strong. The rate of White decline was actually worse in the 90s than the 00s and 2010s. This was in part due to the decline of the aerospace industry, and declining military presence at the end of the Cold War. Not to mention Boomers moving out of state, around the time that they were starting families.

READ MORE