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Agricultural Disruptions in Argentina and Ukraine

by Peter Zeihan on March 21, 2023

Despite some food scares coming out of the former Soviet space, Mother Nature helped 2022 crop production look pretty solid in most of the great agriculture basins of the world. However, this could be the world’s last food-secure year for quite a while.

As Argentina transitions from summer to the harvest season, we’re getting our first glimpse at the yields…and it’s not looking promising. Between floods, droughts, pestilence, and a dash of government incompetence, it’s shaping up to be the worst year on record for Argentinian corn, soy, and wheat.

We’re not off to an auspicious start, but Argentina’s shortages were weather-induced…we haven’t even seen the impacts of fertilizer shortages yet. Additionally, the Ukrainians face a completely different set of disruptions to their agricultural industry.

As Ukraine transitions out of winter, the Russians will likely shift their strategy from targeting power infrastructure to the agricultural system. I expect Ukrainian corn, soy, wheat, and seed oil exports to drop significantly in the coming year. With the agriculture disruptions in Argentina and Ukraine, this is only the beginning of worldwide food insecurity.

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