More from Anatol Lieven at The Signal:
“The dilemma for Russia is that it’s partly European and Western, but it’s largely not. It’s never been accepted by Europe as part of Europe, because it’s much poorer and has a different culture. That’s deeply offensive to Russian pride: We’re the heirs of Byzantium. We’re the biggest state and the largest population in Europe, and yet we’re treated with contempt by Europeans. This has created a desire among Russians to see their country as a separate civilization—not an inferior part of Western civilization, but separate and equal. But Russia has never been strong enough to maintain this idea of itself as a separate and equal civilization.”
“Putin’s preferred phrase about Russian identity for a long time was the idea of Russia as the Third West. There are already two Wests, Europe and America, which are closely related culturally but significantly different. There are big differences between America and Europe on issues such as religion, guns, and attitudes toward the individual, yet they’re both considered the West. Putin asks, Why shouldn’t Russia be a third West, with highly distinctive aspects, but also closely related to the others? The last time I saw Putin was at a conference in Russia in October. He didn’t talk much about Ukraine but did talk an awful lot about attacking woke-ism and LGBTQ ideology. I thought he was looking for the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2024. That rhetoric about carving out Russia as distinct from the dominant Western culture and ideology—but it’s not fundamentally different from the rhetoric of hardline conservatives in Europe and, even more so, America.”
“Now, he’s trying to fulfill his vision of turning Ukraine into a brotherly party—by force. From that point of view, Ukraine has already won. Putin’s attempts to capture Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government were completely defeated and have been publicly abandoned by the Russian government. All their troops have withdrawn from northern Ukraine. They’ve basically gone back to an expanded version of what they did in 2014: take the whole of the Donbas and then either negotiate a ceasefire and peace settlement or hold the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea. Military defeat has shown Putin that the wider agenda is simply impossible. His original dream has been shattered by reality, and he’s gone to a much lesser alternative.”