The only hope for the Republicans to continue to be a competitive national party will be to increase their ability to attract minority voters. It doesn’t look for them even if Trump managed to improve his performance among minorities in 2020 over 2016. My guess is that the future of “conservatism” in the US will look a lot like Dave Rubinism or #WalkAway, i.e. a rainbow coalition of anti-leftists who are grudgingly supported by the “far-right” (nativists, WNs, libertarians, 2nd amendmentists, religious traditionalists, pro-lifers) because “at least they’re not communists” or “at least they won’t take your guns away.”
By Avik Roy, Forbes
At his post-election press conference, President Trump said of his presidential campaign, “I won the largest share of non-white voters of any Republican in 60 years.” While Trump did improve on his performance with minorities in 2020 vs. 2016, according to exit polls, the previous Republican president—George W. Bush—did significantly better in 2004.
Prior to 1936, a majority of Black voters supported Republicans, due to the Republican Party’s historic role in ending slavery. However, the Great Depression and the New Deal led the majority of African-Americans to switch allegiances to the Democrats starting in 1936. Nonetheless, from 1936 to 1960, Republicans garnered a meaningful share of the Black vote, averaging 30% over that period.
The sea change took place in 1964, when Republicans nominated Barry Goldwater, who opposed the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964, and also the Supreme Court’s decision in Brown v. Board of Education to federally mandate the desegregation of public schools. In November 1964, Goldwater garnered 6% of the Black vote.
The 1964 election led to a historic realignment, in which southern Whites began voting Republican, and Blacks began overwhelmingly voting Democratic. (For a detailed history of this realignment, read The Loneliness of the Black Republican by Leah Wright Rigueur.)