o one really knows what goes on inside the mind of President Donald Trump.

But judging by the significant, ongoing U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, one can make an informed guess: He thinks a big war with Iran is a good idea.

If that’s the case, he’s wrong—dangerously so—and he needs a dose of realism.

This administration already claims to be guided by a “flexible realism” in foreign policy. But no variant of realism, however flexible, recommends a U.S. war on the Islamic Republic at this juncture.

Realism holds that geography and the relative distribution of military power among states determine national interests. Iran, being a middling power on the other side of the world, does not pose a military threat to America, the world’s leading superpower.

An implication of realism’s emphasis on power and geography is that realists don’t focus much on what kind of regime a state has. The Islamic Republic is a theocracy with a bad human rights record, but that’s nigh irrelevant from a realist perspective. The purpose of U.S. foreign policy is to promote the safety and prosperity of Americans, not to turn faraway states into liberal democracies, which we’re not good at doing anyway.”

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