Divisions in Brussels and Kyiv over peace. Civil war and militarized gangsters. Humiliated veterans and nude kompromat.

It’s almost 1:00 PM in Brussels. The next few hours will be decisive for the future of Europe and the world.

Typing out those words wasn’t pretty, but it’s true.

The European Union is to decide whether or not to send confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine. An even less viable alternative is EU credits.

This is the latest update from this EPOCHAL event:

With the Council running behind schedule as usual, European leaders are just now gathering for an informal roundtable.

Bulgaria’s President, Rumen Radev, took the opportunity to present the first Bulgarian-coined Euro, which is set to be introduced in 2026.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov resigned a week ago following massive protests against the government and fears of price increases from joining the eurozone.

No comment.

Anyway, if they ever finish discussing the new Bulgarian Euros, Ukraine’s future largely depends on whether the EU bureaucracy can force the Belgian government to hand over the confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine.

Ukraine will not be able to continue its war effort without it. Not with a current planned budget deficit of over 50 billion euros.

We’ll see what happens. It all seems rather unlikely. Numerous European governments are opposed to the idea, particularly the most important one – Belgium, which holds most of the confiscated Russian assets.

But the EU leadership believes that this is Europe’s great chance to prove that it has the backbone to continue the war with Russia, no matter what Washington says. The central Europeans are adamant that billions must go to Kyiv, like it or not:

“We are expecting a very intense European Council meeting,” Austrian leader Christian Stocker said when arriving in the Council building.

He made clear that the EU leaders won’t talk about whether they will provide support to Ukraine or not, but how.

In terms of Russian frozen assets, “no such decision should be taken against Belgium”. However, the use of the assets should be taken as a consistent and double standards to be avoided.

But while the Europeans demand Belgium give up 185 billion euros of confiscated Russian assets, the Austrians are squeamish about far less:

Vienna has previously pushed to use some of the assets to compensate Raiffeisen Bank International, an Austria bank, for its €2 billion seized by Russia but ultimately failed.

Anyway, this is events in Ukraine, not events in Brussels. So we’ll be looking today at what different political fractions in Ukraine have been saying about the prospect of continuing the war. Zelensky and his advisors are wavering, with some key figures saying the previously unspeakable — territorial losses are necessary.

After all, can the Europeans really be counted on for anything more than grand statements and photogenic selfies? How many times have they talked big about European boots on the ground in Ukraine, only to pull back again and again?

Next, Zelensky’s electoral competition is engaging in its usual acrobatics, simultaneously criticizing the government for not having signed a peace deal earlier, but also making themselves out to be more radically ‘anti-capitulationist’ than Zelensky. It’s always easy being in the opposition.

Ex-head of the army Zaluzhny, meanwhile, threatens that criminalized civil war could erupt in a post-war Ukraine. Recent scandals indicate his prediction is not idle — organized crime is already using drones to attack rivals, and that limbless veterans are being mocked by the state-owned bank.

Finally, the western-funded anti-corruption NGOs and thought-leaders are calling for forever-war as usual. As one top representative of this fraction declared today, ‘peace deal or not, 2026 will be a year of war’.

Frustrated with their criticism of government corruption, Zelensky’s law enforcement agencies leaked nude photos of one prominent anti-corruption NGO warrior a few days ago.

Let’s go into it all in more detail.

Zelenskites experimenting

The Ukrainian elite is split between atlanticist militarists and those more beholden to Washington, and hence more open to Trump’s peace plan.

During their weekly youtube roundtable six days ago, the liberal nationalist journalists on Ukrainska Pravda worried about the prominent role of Rustem Umerov in peace negotiations. Ukrainska Pravda is a typical example of media often described in Ukraine as ‘Sorosite’, founded on USAID money and closely connected with the EU, UK, and US Democratic Party.

Umerov was minister of defense until quite recently, and is currently secretary of the national security and defense council. Originally from the Sorosite scene, he is now more of a Zelensky insider.

Why were the Sorosites worrying about Umerov’s place in peace talks? They fixated on the fact that his family and assets are located in the US, concerned that this would make him more susceptible to acquiescing to Trump’s peace plan. Many suspect that Umerov has US citizenship. All three of his children are confirmed US citizens. Last week, I covered signs that Umerov seemed more open to Trump’s vision of significant Ukrainian compromises vis a vis Russia.

And two days ago, Umerov tweeted about progress in peace negotiations with Trump. This is quite dissonant from the Sorosite message, which constantly emphasizes how the evil Trump and his vile peace plan must never be trusted.

Lacking certainty that the Europeans will continue funding the war effort, some recent statements from another member of Zelensky’s team also indicate that the government is sounding out going with the Americans and giving up Ukrainian territory to Russia.