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The Night Owl Newsletter for September 21st

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This is the “End of Tesla” as we know it… (From Brownstone Research)

3 Overlooked Value Stocks Set to Surge as Rates Drop

Written by Gabriel Osorio-MazilliValue investing is an art that has become lost in the noise of hyped-up stocks that merely have to mention artificial intelligence to get investor attention. While AI grabs headlines, many fundamentally strong businesses are being overlooked—setting the stage for classic value plays to shine. This isn’t something new. Emotional rallies are known to push solid companies into the background every cycle.

To take advantage of this divergence today, investors need to be on the hunt for companies creating value in their own ways.

With the Federal Reserve beginning its rate-cutting cycle, consumer activity could rise in the months ahead, so some of the best setups can be found in the consumer discretionary sector.

In this environment, stocks like CAVA Group Inc. (NYSE: CAVA), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU), and United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) offer unique value angles for portfolios right now.

CAVA: The Next Chipotle-Style Growth Story

The fast-casual restaurant business model has been proven successful, as evidenced by the rise of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG)

However, after years of steady growth, Chipotle’s $53.2 billion market cap is too big to achieve the percentage growth rates that value investors like to see. That leaves room for smaller competitors like CAVA, valued at $7.2 billion, to deliver faster growth and bigger shareholder upside.

CAVA’s earnings forecasts support that thesis. According to the MarketBeat consensus forecast, CAVA is expected to deliver an EPS of $0.24 by the second quarter of 2026, a significant increase from its current EPS of $0.16. Analysts have also assigned CAVA a consensus price target of $96.40 per share, implying over 50% upside.

Since the stock trades at only 36% of its 52-week high, it seems the risk-to-reward favors the buyers by a mile.

Lululemon: Temporary Setback, Long-Term Strength

After a couple of quarters showing potential mismanagement, Lululemon’s stock fell to a low of 40% of its 52-week high. However, the news isn’t as bad as it seems.

The company invested significantly more in building inventories than an average quarter, which hurt cash flows and bottom-line earnings. But these issues were strategic moves by management to protect against future tariff costs.

It is no secret that the Lululemon brand is still very popular among today’s consumers, giving it a moat that bearish sentiment has overlooked. Despite its troubles, analysts still see upside, giving it a consensus price target of $239.30 per share (42% upside) from Wall Street analysts.

As interest rate cuts lift consumer confidence, Lululemon may be well positioned to recover. For investors, the dip may represent a chance to buy a premium brand at a rare discount.

UPS: The Retail Boom’s Silent Workhorse

While not a direct retail player, UPS is deeply embedded in the sector’s infrastructure as a shipper of e-commerce orders. As such, UPS stands to benefit from the expected increase in consumer spending, much of which will be through online shopping.

Currently trading at just 58% of its 52-week high, UPS presents a compelling case for investors on the hunt for value opportunities. Especially when you consider its analyst consensus price target of $111.44, which reflects a potential 33.3% upside.

Notably, institutional confidence remains strong. AQR Capital Management increased its stake to $231.4 million in August 2025, signaling a belief that current prices undervalue UPS’s future potential. For value investors, that’s a noteworthy endorsement.

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Hims & Hers Stock Pushes to Highs on Healthcare Rate Cut Frenzy

Written by Gabriel Osorio-MazilliThe financial market is a machine powered by shifting opinions, and when the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate cut, those opinions pushed capital into healthcare and financial stocks.

This kind of sector rotation signals where investors see resilience—and opportunity.

One name that sits at the intersection of healthcare and tech is Hims & Hers Health Inc. (NYSE: HIMS).

It’s a polarizing stock in 2025: some see it as overhyped due to its exposure to GLP-1 weight loss treatments, while others believe it’s just getting started.

With strong quarterly results and bullish analyst coverage, investors may want to reassess where HIMS stands—and where it might be headed.

Growth That’s Hard to Ignore

When the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLV) rose nearly 1% on the day of the Fed cut, it hinted at a flight to stability. That’s also when Hims & Hers started showing its hand.

In its latest Q2 2025 earnings, the company reported $544.8 million in revenue, a 73% increase compared to the previous year. Most importantly, net subscribers hit 2.4 million, a 31% increase from the previous year. For a subscription-based platform, that kind of growth isn’t just appealing, it’s crucial.

Average revenue per user grew from $57 in 2024 to $74 in 2025, a 30% rise, indicating better retention and deeper spending, which enhances revenue and valuation.

And premium it is. Hims & Hers trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 25.9x, well above the medical sector average of 13.6x. That kind of valuation usually holds up only when the market thinks growth is both real and sustainable.

Canaccord’s $68 Target Highlights Bullish Analyst Sentiment

Despite HIMS trading below its 52-week high, Wall Street remains split. The consensus price target is $38.92, which implies about 33% downside from recent prices. That consensus likely reflects a cautious view based on stock volatility rather than fundamentals.

But not all analysts agree.

Maria Ripps of Canaccord Genuity recently reiterated a Buy rating and placed a $68 price target on the stock. That implies a potential 17% upside from current levels—and puts HIMS within striking distance of its 52-week high of just under $73.

Given the company’s recent 32.9% stock surge, this target doesn’t look far-fetched. The rally appears driven by strong earnings and investor optimism about lower interest rates fueling future reinvestment and expansion.

Positioning Before the Market Catches On

If Ripps is right, and if more analysts follow suit, the current price could represent a window of opportunity. Hims & Hers is operating in a market sweet spot: recurring revenue, growing customer base, increasing per-user spend, and a platform model that scales.

Those bullish on the broader telehealth and digital care space should also consider how HIMS stacks up against its competitors.

Although the risks, both regulatory and operational, are substantial, the company’s solid fundamentals and market momentum justify the valuation.

Hims & Hers Health: Strong Q2 Results Validate Growth Strategy

Hims & Hers Health is no longer just a speculative play. With strong subscriber growth, improving margins, and a business model designed for scale, it’s starting to earn its valuation premium.

If you’re waiting for proof of concept, Q2 might have just delivered it. And if analyst sentiment shifts in line with Canaccord’s $68 call, this stock may have more room to run.

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After the Fed’s Rate Cut, PNC Could See a Mortgage Refinance Boom

Written by Jordan ChusslerThe financials sector has had a steady year, with a 10.82% year-to-date (YTD) gain, which is good for fourth-best among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors. But in the wake of the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark interest rate this week—something the central bank hasn’t done since December 2024—there could be much more in store for financials throughout the second half of the year and into 2026.

With the expectation that Wednesday’s cut could be the start of a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, financials are an obvious beneficiary of this adjusted monetary policy.

That’s because, with the cost of borrowing coming down, companies can restructure their existing debt, take on new capex spending at lower rates and perhaps, with freed-up cash flow, increase their mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity.

However, I’m more focused on how the Fed’s rate cuts could impact an otherwise stalled U.S. housing market that has been dealing with historically high unaffordability. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), earlier this year, the number and dollar volume of new mortgages opened each month to purchase or refinance a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property was near their lowest levels since at least 2006.

However, some promising data have been revealed in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting.

While 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were already approaching their lowest levels in nearly a year, CNBC reported that refinancing demand surged nearly 60%.

And with more cuts expected through the remainder of 2025, super regional banks such as PNC Financial Services Group (NYSE: PNC) could see outsized impacts from increased loan originations.

PNC Has Been on an M&A Tear

Perhaps that looming mortgage refinance windfall is something PNC was looking to get ahead of, when earlier this month the super regional bank announced its $4.1 billion acquisition of FirstBank (and its 120 retail branches and has approximately $26 billion in assets), which expanded PNC’s presence into Colorado and Arizona, two of the most desirable housing markets in the United States.

Returning to the previously cited CFPB data, while loan originations as a whole are approaching historic lows, certain pockets of the country are still seeing outsized mortgage demand. Arizona, for example, saw a year-over-year increase of nearly 32% in originations.

The move to acquire FirstBank makes PNC the largest bank in the Denver market. It will also give the company more than 70 branches in Arizona while growing its consolidated assets to roughly $575 billion. In doing so, PNC has cemented its status as a serial acquirer.

Over the past 19 years, the financial services company has acquired 24 other companies. From 2017 to 2019, it brought six companies under its umbrella.

The recent acquisition of FirstBank marks the second big M&A move for the bank this year, but also just the second since 2022. Nonetheless, the value of its collective subsidiaries and core businesses has been directly reflected by PNC’s growth in market cap and stock valuation.

Before that torrent of acquisitions began in 2006, the bank had a market cap of $18.12 billion. PNC’s market cap has surged to $80.20 billion, good for an increase of nearly 343% in fewer than 20 years.

Over the same period, the company’s stock has rewarded shareholders with similar growth. Before that run of acquisitions began, PNC traded for less than $64 per share. Its current price of $203.77 per share reflects an appreciation of 221%.

The Proof Is in the Pudding

The result, that growth has resulted in a swelling of both the company’s balance sheets and income statements. Since 2016, PNC has seen an increase of:

  • 56% in total assets
  • 50% in net income
  • 85% in earnings per share (EPS)

That growth in EPS was particularly pronounced when the company reported Q2 earnings on July 16, announcing $3.85 per share, beating Wall Street’s EPS consensus of $3.56. According to the company’s most recent earnings call, in Q2, PNC saw its strongest loan growth since Q4 2022.

Based on a very attractive forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13.35, PNC’s earnings are expected to grow 12.69% next year, from $15.37 per share to $17.32 per share.

Much of that concerns the realized effects of the aforementioned M&A activity and projections surrounding increased loan origination activity. PNC’s upward revision to its forward guidance for net interest income increased from 6% to 7%.

Institutional ownership stands at nearly 84%, while short interest is just 1.82%. PNC’s dividend currently yields 3.34%, with the company having increased its payout for 14 consecutive years.

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The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.
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