The recent strikes were meant to cripple Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, they proved the limits of coercion. Satellite imagery shows Iran rebuilding its bombed Fordow facility, and Tehran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Far from surrendering, Tehran has struck notes of defiance, and the Iranian people have rallied around the flag, with public opinion now favoring weaponization as the ultimate deterrent against future attacks—a marginal stance before the strikes. In other words, the hoped-for benefits failed to materialize, though the predictable costs came to pass: a destabilized Middle East and a distracted America, forced to choose between arming Israel or Ukraine amid congressional budget fights.

Yet opportunities for peace with Iran and stability in the Middle East remain. A revived nuclear deal—even an interim accord—could reinstate inspections, cap uranium enrichment, and engineer creative solutions for the reportedly missing 60 percent enriched uranium from Fordow, possibly by transferring it to Russia. In fact, Trump has consistently seen Moscow as a potential partner in resolving the Iranian standoff, a topic that regularly arises in his calls with Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, backchannel talks through Oman suggest renewed U.S.–Iran diplomacy may be possible, with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly meeting Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo. In an interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson that aired Monday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian reaffirmed Tehran’s readiness to resume talks with Washington.

For a small nation dependent on outside help, these ambitions may sound delusional (The American Conservative’s Andrew Day explored them in detail last week), but they have proven politically advantageous for Netanyahu and his messianic extremist coalition. The Iran war reversed the decline in Netanyahu’s popularity—polls from Israel’s Maariv newspaper show his Likud party regaining its position as the country’s most popular political force, rising to 27 seats in the parliament if the elections were to be celebrated now, compared to 13 according to a pre-war poll. At the same time, the party of his right-wing rival Naftali Bennett dropped from projected 27 seats to 24. Civilian casualties from Iranian retaliatory strikes—29 dead and thousands wounded—have only reinforced the siege mentality among Netanyahu’s allies.

The war has also, for now, eased Netanyahu’s legal troubles, in large part because Trump, citing the prime minister’s leadership during the conflict, called for charges to be dropped. An Israeli court postponed the looming corruption trial testimony at Netanyahu’s request, due to his role as a “wartime prime minister.”

The surest way for Netanyahu to secure Israel’s regional dominance and consolidate his political gains is to resume hostilities with Iran. But Israel—a densely packed country of 9.8 million people with no strategic depth—cannot on its own sustain a prolonged conflict with a nation ten times its population. Leaked documents reviewed by The Telegraph reveal that the damage from Iran’s retaliatory strikes was worse than officially acknowledged. Israeli military censorship had kept hidden the full extent of Iran’s tactical successes, but the data shows five military bases hit in 12 days, with missile defenses strained to their limits. Unlike Iran’s vast geography, Israel’s concentrated population and infrastructure—including the Dimona nuclear facility—make it uniquely vulnerable to escalation.

This is why Netanyahu needs to entangle Trump in his war: Israel cannot fight Iran without the support of its superpower patron.

Trump must avoid this trap. Crucially, he has already shown reluctance to fully indulge Netanyahu’s escalatory plans. During Israel’s 12-day war with Iran, the administration authorized limited strikes on Fordow—reportedly with prior warning to Tehran—demonstrating resolve while deliberately avoiding the full-scale U.S. war that Netanyahu sought. This calibrated approach blocked Israel’s push for deep U.S. military involvement and avoided triggering a regional conflagration.

Trump has strong political incentives to hold firm in this pragmatism. According to a YouGov/Economist poll, 60 percent of Americans think the U.S. military should not get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran, with only 16 percent supporting military action. Most MAGA voters went along with Trump’s strikes, but many could turn on the president if the U.S. wages a prolonged war with Iran. Tucker Carlson’s viral segments (such as his latest with the Libertarian Institute’s Scott Horton) and warnings from allies like Steve Bannon and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene show that prominent MAGA influencers won’t compromise on their rejection of Middle East quagmires. With 52 percent of Americans now disapproving of Trump’s foreign policy and no clear path to ending the war in Ukraine, starting another conflict could fracture his coalition.

Another key reason to deescalate relates to America’s improving relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, ties that grew only stronger during Trump’s landmark visit to the region in May. Preserving those relationships requires avoiding open-ended wars that destabilize the region. The Gulf states’ cautious neutrality during recent conflicts underscores the value of this approach.

Chasing Netanyahu’s fantasies would also divert resources from the defining challenge: countering China, America’s only peer competitor. A diplomatic deal with Iran would free up political and military capital for the strategic “pivot to Asia” that Washington has failed to execute since the Barack Obama administration.

Moving forward, Trump should reject Netanyahu’s push for deeper U.S. involvement in Israel’s war on Iran. Instead, he should intensify backchannel diplomacy through Oman and other mediators, including possibly Russia.

The contrast between the interests of the two leaders is stark: Netanyahu needs war to survive politically, while Trump needs peace to fulfill his “America First” campaign promises. The latter’s pragmatism has prevented worse escalation before, and it motivated him to keep U.S. strikes on Iran restricted to a specific mission, however ill-conceived. Now is the time to cement that restraint.

The door to true statesmanship remains open, or at least unlocked—but only if Trump resists the Israeli push toward escalation. For a president who vowed to end “stupid wars,” the choice should be clear.

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