This week we are in the midst of another spasm of 2024 retrospection, reviving two narratives. The first I’ll call the “if only” narrative. It takes the form of “if only Biden had not insisted on a second term after the midterms,” or “if only Harris had listened to me about [ ].” The second I’ll call the “realignment” narrative, which usually takes the form of, “Democrats are out of step with the median voter” or “Republicans have become the party of multiracial working class.” Crucially, this narrative depends on asserting that Trump would have won an even larger victory if “everyone voted1”—because conceding otherwise would (1) undermine the portrayal of Trump’s victory as genuinely “democratic,” (2) cast doubt on the durability of this conservative realignment, and (3) provide encouragement to those advocating greater voter turnout, which realignment proponents fear primarily empowers left-leaning interests.2

And so, it seems an ideal time to revisit my analysis in “How Trump “Won,’” which I published in early January, before the inauguration, in response to widespread claims from media and even Democrats that America had shifted decisively to the right. (Remember the “vibe shift”?) I explained that Trump’s victory was historically narrow, and reflected less newfound enthusiasm for MAGA than dissatisfaction with Democrats and with the political system itself.3 A key to Biden’s 2020 victory had been high turnout from otherwise-infrequent voters who believed they had too much to lose from a second Trump term. But in 2024, that dread dissipated—and with it, the support from the anti-MAGA voters Harris would have needed to win; millions stayed home, and others likely reverted to their previous partisan preference.4

Four months into Trump 2.0, I believe that we have compelling new evidence for that case hiding in plain sight. Trump’s dismal polling numbers are a constant topic—but few if any have drawn the most important conclusion about this rapid, dramatic shift. Those numbers don’t show that Trump has squandered some deep reservoir of support, or that he has “overreached.” Those polling numbers show that Trump’s earlier support depended on voters not understanding or believing he would do what he said he would do if elected. On tariffs, deportations, and other issues that are cratering his approval ratings, Trump is now doing almost precisely what he said he would do.5 And voters hate it—including the “less engaged” voters who were supposedly too hard to reach before November with warnings about it.6

Therefore the latest polling tells us less about Trump than it does about the catastrophic failure of not just Democratic campaign professionals, but also civil society and the media, to effectively inform voters of the consequences of the choice they had before them. As I articulated in February 2024, the choice was dire and the duty to inform great:

“The 2024 election is … a de facto constitutional referendum. At first blush, “de facto constitutional referendum” may seem a bit much. But, if implemented, the MAGA agenda as expressed by Trump, and delineated in great detail in documents like the Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership, could change America as quickly and as fundamentally as the Reconstruction Amendments and the New Deal Order – if not more so.

… Democracy is not a spectator sport. It is up to us whether those who reject a MAGA future vote in greater numbers than those who embrace MAGA. … We are in something of a Niemöller moment. When we depend on the campaign smarts of the Democratic Party to forestall a MAGA future, we abdicate our duties as democratic citizens to do everything we can to keep it from happening.”

The current backlash against Trump is exactly the outcome we’d expect to see if my long-standing argument is true: that America has an anti-MAGA majority, but not necessarily a pro-Democratic one. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the reality of American politics today is not a “realignment,” wherein the views and values of most ordinary Americans have become fundamentally more aligned with the views of MAGA Republicans. Rather it’s been a “dealignment” from both parties. Voters, increasingly distrustful of institutions and clamoring for substantial change that neither party is delivering, have punished incumbent parties in nine of the past ten elections—a D-R-D-R presidential alternation pattern unseen in over a century.

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