As the pressure within the Chinese system continues to mount, you can expect to see signs as the first few things begin to crack. Those first pieces to slip will be manufactured goods, processed materials, and services.
The manufactured goods we all think of first are the consumer goods – aka all the crap that you use daily. Sure, we will face shortages on these things, but they can be replaced with time. The more critical side of manufactured goods are industrial components, like machinery and transformers. These will be harder to replace and are key to the reindustrialization that needs to take place in the US. Exports of processed materials like aluminum and lithium are dominated by China, and the US will face massive headaches if that goes offline. China’s lesser-known global tech role will erode if there were disruptions to hardware imports or further tightening of trade restrictions.
In a normal system, we would be able to see this collapse coming. However, thanks to Xi’s cult of personality, the rest of the world has a bag over its head and is in for a rude awakening.