Negotiating positions are being revealed, albeit slowly

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Four days ago, US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg suggested to the UK Times that Ukraine could be divided in a post-war settlement akin to what was done to Germany after WW2. A handy map was shared (see above) to illustrate such a proposal.

Joseph Keith Kellogg is one US envoy working on negotiating a settlement to end this war. Steve Witkoff is another. The Americans have been quite vocal in saying that only a negotiated settlement could end this war, and they have been saying it much louder since their own hawks were defeated during the failed summer counteroffensive of 2023. The position of the new US administration is no different, with the only notable change being that these discussions are now visible.

To me, the most notable element of these talks is how the USA is trying to position itself as some dispassionate neutral mediator between Ukraine and Russia, even though it has been an active belligerent on the side of Kiev throughout the entire war. This sleight-of-hand worked when managing the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran, but Russia is Russia, with its own significant heft that cannot be dismissed nor even downplayed (especially with the failure of the sanctions regime leveled against it to date).

Unlike the Russians, the Americans are bogged down with a proxy in the form of a client state in this conflict. This means that any negotiated settlement has to be sold to them as they have “skin in the game”. Yet US objectives do not mirror those of Ukraine, meaning that the sponsor’s goals will win out in the end. At some point in the coming future, a conflict will break out on the Ukrainian side as to whether to accept a US-backed peace deal or not. Will it break out into open fighting between differing Ukrainian factions? I don’t know. But Ukrainians should look to 1920s Ireland to understand how prone they are to this actually coming about.

This war continues to be one of attrition, and even though the Ukrainians are and continue to fight bravely, the Russians have shown a strong capacity for being able to take hits as well. Once this became an actual war of attrition, the outcome was already decided….so long as politics did not interrupt the process. There has been no great Russian breakthrough, but they are grounding Ukrainian forces into dust while ever so slowly continuing to push the frontline north and west.

Which brings us to the Kellogg map……….

The map allows for the Russians to maintain control over the land that they have captured, buffered by a very wide de-militarized zone that reflects the power of new drone technology made available during this conflict. The most interesting part is the stationing of French and British forces to the west of the Dnieper River. Kellogg argues that this shouldn’t be viewed as provocative by the Russians, as it would not be a NATO force. Very funny.

The fact of the matter is that this would be NATO-by-Stealth, precisely the thing that caused the Russians to invade Ukraine in the first place. Kellogg is telling the Russians that NATO will now move its border eastwards to the Dnieper River, and that the Russians can have the 18% of Ukraine that they occupy as a consolation prize. The Ukrainians? They will just have to swallow it or risk losing the backing of the USA.

This war has been fought to determine the new border between Russia and the US Empire. As I’ve written here in the past, this conflict is now one of diminshing returns for the Americans, especially considering the fact that they want to move their primary focus to East Asia. That cannot be done without a settlement in Ukraine. Kellogg’s proposal does show us some of the cards in the hands of the USA, but this game is far from over.

We haven’t discussed this conflict here for some time, so this is your opportunity to share your thoughts on it as it stands today. Have at it!

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