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Since August 2021, the Taliban appear to have offered havens to militant groups from Central Asia and Pakistan, and they’re again allowing al-Qaeda to manage its global operations from inside Afghanistan. Taliban members have joined the main Pakistani Islamist militia, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has been warring with the country’s government for years. At home, Afghan militants have been seizing foreigners as hostages—and exchanging them for jailed fighters and drug traffickers.

And lately, these militants have staged attacks farther and farther afield. In January 2024, a group of Afghanistan-based militants, Islamic State–Khorasan Province, bombed a funeral in Iran, killing and wounding almost 400 people. That March, four gunmen from the same group shot more than 150 people at a rock concert near Moscow. Then in June, U.S. officials arrested eight alleged members of the group, who were apparently plotting an attack in the United States.

How did things get to this point?

Nilofar Sakhi is a lecturer in international affairs at The George Washington University and the former executive director of the American University of Afghanistan. Sakhi says the growing insecurity in Afghanistan, along with its risks for the region and the West, come from the nature of the Taliban itself: Whatever else they may end up doing, they’re fundamentally a militant group. They now run the government; they insist they don’t have any connections to the Islamist organizations operating in the country; but they’re still essentially a militant group.

They have years—in some cases, decades—of history working with the other Islamist forces in the country. They share resources; members move from group to group; and they trust each other. They also share an ideological commitment to bringing all the world’s Muslims under the rule of their strict mode of Islam. And, Sakhi says, they’re building institutions for the next generations of militants. The Taliban have opened hundreds of madrasas—schools to teach the principles of Islam—but there’s evidence that the preachers in many of them are increasingly and intentionally encouraging violence in the name of religion …

• “My reading is that al-Qaeda is gaining strength. They haven’t launched attacks abroad, it’s true. But what’s happening in Afghanistan is a web of militancy. Many other militant groups, like Jamaat Ansarullah, evolved out of al-Qaeda—and al-Qaeda still supports them. With sanctuary and support from the Taliban, there’s an environment in the country that’s enabling them to grow.”
• “The Taliban say they have control over the entire country, but we know that’s not true. There are small pockets of armed insurgencies, particularly in the northern and western parts of Afghanistan. We know about attacks on Taliban posts and against high-ranking officials in some provinces. But we don’t always know who’s behind these insurgencies. There are rumors that maybe IS-KP is behind some of these attacks. We do know that the National Resistance Force, which is the group formed by leaders of Afghanistan before the Taliban’s 2022 takeover, is fighting against the Taliban, so they’re likely behind some of this activity.”
• “The Taliban now use these other groups as leverage. The Taliban want to show the world that they have this network at their back, so Western countries will treat them as a powerful force. Even if the Taliban also insist that they’re not connected to these groups and don’t provide them sanctuary, they use them as a card in negotiations.”

During this election campaign, he visited the Minsk Automobile Plant, where a BBC reporter said he was greeted with “rapturous applause.” That may not be representative of wider sentiment in Belarus, but still, it is telling: The opposition seems resigned, at least for the moment. Why?

In this week’s member’s despatch, we explore this question with a look at Paul Hansbury’s Belarus in Crisis: From Domestic Unrest to the Russia-Ukraine War—a primer on Belarusian history and society, as well as an in-depth analysis of Belarus’s current affairs. It’s a murky subject, shot through with official obfuscation, but Hansbury sifts through the evidence like a detective …

• Iran has announced that it would consider negotiations with the United States if discussions focus solely on concerns about the potential militarization of its nuclear program. This statement, posted to X by Iran’s U.N. mission, follows Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei‘s previous rejection of broader talks with the U.S. The apparent shift comes after U.S. President Trump sent a letter seeking a new nuclear deal as Iran continues enriching uranium at near weapons-grade levels. Tehran maintains its program is peaceful and refuses negotiations aimed at dismantling it completely.
• Pope Francis has begun his 27th consecutive day in Rome’s Gemelli Hospital, where the Vatican reports he spent a “peaceful night.” The 88-year-old pontiff’s prognosis was “lifted” on Monday, indicating he’s no longer in imminent danger, though his clinical condition remains complex. Francis has been hospitalized since February 14 with bilateral pneumonia, but he continues to show signs of recovery. Thursday marks the 12th anniversary of his election as pope, succeeding Benedict XVI.
• A town councilor in Buchs, Switzerland, Marc Jaisli, was fined 6,500 francs (US$7,390) for purchasing pink water pistols online through the Chinese e-commerce site Temu as gifts for his godchildren. Despite the toys’ bright color, Swiss prosecutors determined that they violated the country’s weapons law because they “could be confused for real firearms due to their appearance.” Jaisli tells local newspaper Aargauer Zeitung that he was unaware of the violation but accepted and paid the penalty without contesting it.

• The entertainment industry is one of the biggest economic sectors in the world—so what does pop culture look like from a quantitative point of view? Read Stat Significant, a free weekly newsletter featuring data-based essays on movies, music, TV, and more. Sign up here.

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