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Contempt of court

In response, a group of 79 countries—including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France—signed a joint letter calling the ICC “a vital pillar of the international justice system” and promising it “unwavering” support. And yet many of these same countries have been ambivalent about whether they will actually enforce the ICC’s arrest warrants. For instance, the likely future German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently said that he’d find “ways and means” for Netanyahu to visit Germany.

The present clash between the United States government and the International Criminal Court traces the fault lines of international law itself. The U.S. claims that the ICC is infringing on the sovereignty of states, which is similar to the charge leveled by European critics of the European Court of Human Rights. Others believe it’s the basis of a peaceful and just international order. And others still think international law is selectively enforced against the West’s geopolitical enemies—“Africa and … thugs like Putin,” as Karim Khan told CNN one senior American leader put it to him. So which is it?

Yuan Yi Zhu is an assistant professor of international relations and international law at Leiden University and a research associate at the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Constitutional Law and Legal Studies. Dramatic though the United States’s sanctions against the International Criminal Court may seem, Zhu says, they’re not really surprising: Washington has long opposed international courts having jurisdiction over Americans and certain American allies. And the current contretemps between Washington and the Hague illustrate that the enforcement of international law is largely based on the consent of states.

But once they’ve signed international treaties, international courts tend to interpret their powers expansively, which has led to a series of standoffs between states and international courts. In the long run, Zhu says, that threatens to undermine not just democratic governance but international law itself, as more and more states begin to consider leaving international courts …

• “We now have a lot of international law really concerned with matters that traditionally would have been within the purview of the state’s own laws. That’s new. There is, for instance, human-rights law: The European Convention on Human Rights says states shall not pass certain laws if they conflict with human rights enshrined in international law as interpreted by an international court. That is radical. A century ago, no one would have thought that human rights, immigration, or criminal justice would have been within the purview of international law. But now international law covers just about anything you can name.”
• “There’s the issue of precedents. Omar al-Bashir, the former president of Sudan, was a fugitive from the ICC. He wasn’t able to travel to the West, but he could travel to South Africa, Russia, and a number of Muslim-majority countries. Enforcement depends on the goodwill of states. Most of the time, they’re happy to enforce international law because they perceive their own state interests as aligned with it. But there’s a divergence between the two in this particular case concerning Israeli leaders. So I don’t foresee these warrants being executed successfully anytime soon.”
• “I don’t reject international law, as some of my friends do. I actually think international law is fine most of the time. You know, the famous adage is that most of the time most countries respect most international law. Which is true. But I think if international institutions and courts insist on taking these expansive stances, that’ll lead to a backlash. And we know this because it’s already underway—and it’ll soon be much worse. A lot of states could start leaving these institutions. Which in the long run could threaten the survival of international law in its entirety.”

European countries have increased defense spending by about 30 percent since 2021—but as John R. Deni says here in The Signal, they’re now running into serious budget problems that could thwart their desire to send more aid to Ukraine.

German law prevents the government from running a deficit larger than 0.35 percent of GDP, though the incoming cabinet has said it wants to revisit the limit. The U.K. and France—the next two largest economies in Europe—are already facing severe fiscal shortfalls; the new British budget cuts government spending, while France just passed a budget with a deficit amounting to 5.4 percent of GDP, violating the EU limit of 3 percent—for the sixth year in a row.

—Michael Bluhm

From this week’s member’s despatch …

• Peruvian President Dina Boluarte is facing legal challenges over a two-week absence in July 2023 when she underwent nose surgery without appointing a caretaker president. There is debate about whether the procedure was medical or cosmetic. The details were only confirmed publicly on Tuesday when Alberto Otárola, her former prime minister, disclosed the specifics to a congressional committee. Boluarte, who has a 95 percent disapproval rating, also faces separate investigations regarding alleged bribes involving Rolex watches and the deaths of more than 50 protesters during demonstrations in 2022. Her term is set to end in July 2026.
• U.S. Republicans are working to overhaul federal spending through three separate but related efforts. First, a short-term bill to prevent a government shutdown by Saturday focuses on immediate funding. Second, a 10-year budget plan including significant tax cuts and spending reductions moves through Congress. In parallel, Elon Musk’s cost-cutting team in the Department of Government Efficiency is directing agencies to fire workers and cancel contracts. This summer, they will have to tackle the approaching debt-limit deadline, which requires congressional action to avoid a U.S. default.
• A U.S. Customs and Border Protection surveillance balloon broke free from South Padre Island during severe winds on Monday, traveling approximately 600 miles north before crashing in Hunt County, near Dallas, Texas. Perhaps unsurprisingly, people near Dallas didn’t immediately know what it was. It turns out the Tethered Aerostat Radar System, designed to broadcast the location of low-altitude aircraft, detached during what officials called a “severe wind event.” Wind gusts reached almost 50 km/h on Monday at the border and more than 120 km/h in Dallas on Tuesday.

• The world of entertainment and media drives new trends in business and the economy. It’s also complex and fast-moving. How to keep up? Read TheFutureParty, a free newsletter with the latest developments and insights from inside the industry. Sign up here.

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