by Peter Zeihan on March 12, 2025

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Imprisoned Kurdish PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, has once again called for the PKK to disarm and transition into a political party, but this time it might actually happen.

As a nationalist Turkey emerged from the multi-ethnic Ottoman empire, the Kurds were isolated and marginalized. The Kurds then formed the PKK in the late 70s, and insurgency has been waged since. President Erdoğan has consolidated power and stabilized Turkey, allowing the military to stamp out any Kurdish insurgencies.

The Kurds are spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria and many of these regions are losing international support and the ability to function. So, the disarming and organizing of the Kurds is more viable now. If it happens, Turkey stands to gain a significant strategic opportunity.

With fewer regional threats and a tided up southern border, Turkey would be able to dominate the region and extend its focus to larger geopolitical ambitions. The only question remaining is: what will Turkey do next?

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