The Geopolitics of Climate Change

by Peter Zeihan on January 30, 2025

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Places like Canada and Greenland hold immense resources, but extraction isn’t straightforward. Given the harsh conditions (an ice sheet in Greenland and permafrost in Canada), these resources will remain where they are until some new tech comes along or some drastic changes occur. The use of the Arctic Ocean as a shipping route is another hot topic. Given that the Arctic won’t be ice-free in the winter for a while, this route poses some big challenges: lack of icebreakers, infrastructure limitations, and demographic issues in the countries that could make this happen.

However, a more immediate impact will be felt on global agriculture. Wheat thrives in extreme conditions and depends upon globalized supply chains for fertilizers and irrigation. These supply chains will weaken in the coming years and could even collapse, leading to widespread famine in several places.

Sure, there will be some new opportunities tied to climate change, but the crises that will follow should be of much greater concern.

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