Robert Stark

Jan 12, 2024

“Nothing ever happens” is a meme to mock the accelerationists, collapse bros. The two big events of last year were the banking crisis in Spring and then the Hamas terror attack in October. However, 2023 overall felt like another stagnant year, especially towards the end with market bullishness and an apparent strength of the soft landing narrative.

While obviously the presidential election will be volatile, so far the big events of 2024 have been the new war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and signs of conflict escalating between Israel and Hezbollah. Plus new CPI data shows a resurgence in inflation, on top of recessionary signals. It is notable that the war is inflationary. All of these trends were in my predictions for 2024.

The inflation resurgence will hamper a Fed pivot, elevating chances of either high inflation and or a severe recession. Not to mention civil unrest breaking out in nations like Ecuador, which is part of the broader crisis that will hit the Global South. 2024 will likely be more chaotic than previous years, but overall the trend seems to be managed decline and stagnation rather than total chaos and collapse.

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