Economics/Class Relations

The End of Germany as a Modern Economy

by Peter Zeihan on October 11, 2023

I’m sitting along a cliff band around 12,000 ft in the high alpine, and I’m hoping the scenery might soften the blow I’m about to deliver to my German readers…the future of Deutschland is not looking bright. Three unsolvable problems will lead to Germany’s collapse as a modern economy over 20 – 30 years.

The Germans chose two of the worst trade partners around, Russia and China. While cutting ties with these countries is a good strategic move, it has resulted in detrimental losses. Any success the Germans once saw in their trade relations has now collapsed.

German labor is staring down the barrel of a collapse as well. With highly skilled laborers aging out, the industrial base of the German ecosystem will have no one to prop it up. The Japanese were able to mitigate a similar situation, but they started that process decades ago.

To complicate things further, Germany has managed to run their energy portfolio into the ground. The Greens have ditched cheap energy solutions for wind and solar, but even when combined, those fall well short of energy demands. So the Germans are stuck with lignite, and if anything happens to that…yikes.

No matter what angle you look at Germany from, the combination of all these factors is a death sentence. While their decision to resist Russian blackmail early in the Ukraine War was the moral high ground, they may have driven the last nail into their coffin.

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The End of Germany as a Modern Economy || Peter Zeihan

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