Wednesday night saw the first undercard debate of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. I think TAC did pretty well analyzing it, mostly by anticipation, so this edition of the weekly email is a debate roundup. The bottom line: barring unforeseen intensification of foreseen circumstances, Donald Trump will be the nominee.

First, from managing editor Jude Russo, is the after-action report. He writes, “There are two points worth making about this otherwise basically pointless exercise. First, Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis had a bad night, putting more drag on what has seemed like an ill-considered campaign from the get-go.” The second point: “how incoherent the GOP line on abortion is, and how visibly cretinous some of the party’s putative grandees are.” Former Vice President Mike Pence was the only candidate to articulate anything like a consistent pro-life agenda, and the rest of the crew simply dodged and weaved, which would never hold up in the general election they won’t be a part of. If incrementalism is your goal, at least own it with confidence.

Second, breaking my usual rule to minimize self-recommendations, is my Wednesday column this week, which was a preview of that evening’s debate. I didn’t predict it would be the Vivek Ramaswamy show, but much of the rest of the evening’s dynamic was predictable. Chris Christie did his best to show that Trump isn’t the only one who can smack people around on stage, though he started unexpectedly “low energy.” Ron DeSantis seemed uncertain defending second place and a sterling gubernatorial record now greasy with campaigning. And Nikki Haley was clearly challenging President Joe Biden for the establishment vote more than running to head the GOP, and she got the NYT kudos after that she was hoping for. More interesting than all that is the reality that Donald Trump didn’t need to be at the debate, and that fracturing digital media have fully supplanted our televisual town square.

Third, and the longest forecast but most evergreen, is executive director Emile Doak’s Monday assessment of the candidates and nomination contest, based on last week’s summit in Atlanta. The D.C. status quo is united by a foreign policy of liberal internationalism. Dissent from police-state America is the surest ticket to elite hostility, as Ron DeSantis has discovered to his discomfort. Support for the Ukraine war has become a shorthand for a strong America and business as usual. As Trump knows by experience and Ramaswamy has picked up, objecting to prolonging the grinding and dangerous conflict in the name of putting America first is the best way to break with the herd. Emile concludes, “keep an eye on foreign policy. It still is the driving issue for Permanent Washington. And it seems it is deepening the chasm between the GOP and its voters as well.”

Best,
Micah Meadowcroft
Web Editor

―Walker Percy

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