With Ron DeSantis about to sign a six-week abortion ban and sink his chances of winning a general election, it’s useful to think a bit about why this issue has been such a loser for Republicans.

I didn’t predict that the effect of Dobbs would be anywhere near this extreme, based on the priors that the parties were already sorted and no single issue was likely to have a major electoral impact. After the 2022 midterms, I changed my mind, and the idea that the pro-life position is an albatross around the necks of Republicans was recently confirmed in Wisconsin.

The degree to which this is a strong issue for Democrats can be seen in what has happened in Michigan. The state voted for Trump in 2016, had a Republican governor until 2019, and a Republican legislature until last year’s midterms. Michigan now has Democratic women in the positions of governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and senate majority leader. To say that the Democrats in the state have run on abortion would be an understatement. As an article in New York shows, an absolute and uncompromising position on reproductive health has been central to Democratic messaging. On Twitter, some have assured me that all this proves is that “conviction wins,” but that’s delusional. Conviction on things most people agree with wins, while conviction in favor of unpopular positions doesn’t. This is why Republicans all over the country are desperate to change the subject.