A day before election day, Krystal and Saagar bring the news of midterm expectations, Trump vs DeSantis, Twitter turmoil, Ukraine diplomacy, MSNBC cope, cable news dying, Dem elites vs Biden, and final predictions from Krystal and Saagar!
Status Coup: https://www.youtube.com/c/StatusCoup
Timestamps: Election Night: 0:00 – 3:43 Midterms: 3:44 – 31:19 Trump 2024: 31:20 – 45:26 Twitter: 45:27 – 1:01:29 Ukraine: 1:01:30 – 1:13:34 Joy Reid: 1:13:35 – 1:17:57 Saagar: 1:17:58 – 1:26:20 Krystal: 1:26:21 – 1:34:56 Predictions: 1:34:57 – 1:46:31
11/7 NEWSLETTER: Midterm Preview, Final Predictions, Trump vs DeSantis, Ukraine Diplomacy, & More!
Welcome to the November 7th, 2022 Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar premium newsletter. We are one day away from election night and we have some updates for you on programming.
On Tuesday, there will be no full show in the morning. Live election night coverage will begin at 7PM EST and you will receive an email when we are set to begin. From 7-9, Krystal and Saagar will be hosting alongside Kyle Kulinski and Marshall Kosloff. At 9PM, Ryan and Emily will join Krystal and Saagar for the next hour. Then, Krystal and Saagar will be finished and the rest of the night will be anchored by Ryan and Emily. Throughout the election broadcast, we will have guests to give reporting on the ground and analysis of early voting data.
Following election night, there will be a Wednesday full show broadcast instead of the usual Thursday show. On Thursday, Ryan and Emily will be doing a full show Counter Points broadcast in addition to their regular Friday show. We will provide election coverage every day of the week to make sure you are all caught up with the results.
The quick turnaround from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning means the newsletter for Wednesday will be cut short. Election results will be coming in rapidly so it will be difficult to keep up in this format.
Tomorrow night’s results have been predicted endlessly by polls and election analysts trying to figure out what the electorate will do. Republicans believe they are on the cusp of a red wave that will put the house and senate back in their control. Final polls by Emerson College indicate
the GOP’s bullish outlook will manifest itself in swing elections. They have Republican senate candidates winning narrowly in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and winning more comfortably in Wisconsin and Nevada. More good news for Republicans can be seen in center-left analytics site FiveThirtyEight’s senate forecaster
giving them a 54% chance of taking the senate as of Sunday.
Party insiders told The New Yorker that they are preparing for a senate sweep in the most competitive races. One strategist remarked that scandal-ridden Herschel Walker is leading Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock in every private poll. Other GOP operatives believe Mehmet Oz will defeat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania by a few points and Adam Laxalt is certain to win against Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada. Other races are expected to be GOP blowouts— Kari Lake in Arizona and JD Vance in Ohio come to mind. Weak candidates like Blake Masters in Arizona and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire will ride the wave to narrow senate victories. The New Yorker is a liberal magazine and it sought GOP perspectives ahead of what could be a brutal election season for Democrats. In August, Democrats gained unexpected momentum on abortion and from a string of legislative victories for President Biden. But GOP insiders believe the story was overblown; progressives were responding overwhelmingly to polls and showing up in off-year special elections. Their behavior created an information loop for Democrats who became convinced base messaging on abortion and January 6th would win over the electorate. Republicans ended up waiting out the abortion issue and Republicans have emphasized economic difficulties under President Biden. Compounded by a barrage of GOP funds being put into ads about crime and Democrats refusing to shift their messaging, GOP insiders now see a red wave again. A key issue in election forecasting has been the difficulty in getting Republican voters to respond to polls. In the fall, GOP voters have begun responding again, unlike the summer when progressives were most enthusiastic. Exacerbating the problem has been Democrats growing coalition of highly educated, affluent progressives compared to GOP gains with harder to reach groups such as latino men. Independents have fallen with the Republicans on inflation, crime, immigration, and other social issues. This situation has not been due to any success of GOP leadership, rather Democratic failures have created an electoral outlook favorable for the GOP according to this perspective.
Democratic optimists have a different view of how election night will go. The enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans has narrowed and final polls from Marist look good
for the Democratic slate. Generic ballot polling is basically split
and Joe Biden’s approval is up from the lows it reached last spring. Republican response rates
going up, especially for conservative pollsters, makes the averages more reliable than they were in August. On aggregate, numbers point to Democrats performing better than expected during the harshest days
of Biden’s tenure. Democrats believe they have strong incumbent candidates in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada senate contests running in states that elected President Biden. Trump anointed GOP candidates lacking in political experience have fumbled the advantages they have from the midterm backlash that historically comes to incumbent presidents. Republicans are proposing unpopular economic plans from tax cuts for the rich to social security cuts if they regain control. Fundraising has been in Democrats’ favor throughout the campaign cycle and record high early voting numbers indicate an extremely motivated electorate. If Democrats lose the house and maintain control of the senate, it would be an above average midterm performance in an economy with record high inflation. The Democratic party has a case for optimism and we will see if it pans out on election day.
In a preview of the live election night coverage, Breaking Points
has sent Status Coup journalist Jordan Chariton and a freelancer of his to cover Pennsylvania. Dueling rallies for Fetterman and Oz took place over the weekend to get out the vote. Here is the full footage
that we cut way down for the sake of time.
Former President Donald Trump will reportedly announce
his 2024 campaign on November 14th according to sources familiar with his inner circle. His top advisers have been signaling a 2024 announcement for a long time, and discussions have settled on an announcement right after the midterms. Trump world officials hope he can ride a sense of euphoria from a GOP red wave and take credit for his chosen candidates being victorious. Trump hinted at running during a recent rally and will try to get ahead of GOP rival Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida. Over the weekend, Trump debuted a nickname for DeSantis that caused a stir in conservative circles. DeSantis was labeled “DeSanctimonious” by Trump
to some applause from the crowd. Nicknames for opponents became a hallmark of Trump’s political attacks in 2016 that proved to be successful. He famously belittled and attacked GOP politicians Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio with nicknames that stuck. His nickname for general election opponent Hillary Clinton, where he called her “crooked”, is another one that worked well for him. It remains to be seen if his nickname for DeSantis has the same effect. Florida polls indicate an easy re-election for DeSantis on Tuesday night. Conservative commentators such as Daily Wire blogger
Matt Walsh took issue with Trump going after DeSantis before the midterms. He noted DeSantis’ record as Florida Governor and his refusal to attack Trump up to this point. Other conservatives observed that Trump being in the news is not good for Republicans electorally.
The rapidly shifting news about twitter has given the show more to cover on the platform’s changes. Twitter CEO Elon Musk complained
about advertisers fleeing the platform due to pressure from activists. Multiple advertisers have stopped spending on Twitter ads because they are worried about what Elon’s ownership could mean for the platform. They perceive misinformation and security issues as problems that could develop under Musk’s leadership. The eccentric tech entrepreneur has expressed a commitment to free speech and tried to reassure advertisers
the platform would still moderate certain forms of content. Twitter announced that they began offering users the paid verification
feature Musk promoted heavily over the past week. Soon after, they decided to delay the feature until after the midterms to avoid instability on the platform right before elections. Charging users for the blue checkmark is an attempt to monetize Twitter’s status as a forum for elites to share opinions and bring in revenue without relying on advertisers. At the same time, it could help address Musk’s concerns about trolls, spam, bots, and misleading user figures for the platform. When he was asked about the benefits, Musk explained that paid users would receive priority
over unpaid users in terms of visibility.
New information has come out about the Biden administration’s push to open up diplomacy between Ukraine and Russia. They have encouraged Ukraine
to drop its refusal to meet with Russia under the Putin regime. The White House is attempting to facilitate talks while maintaining Ukraine’s moral high ground over Russia in this war. Senior White House officials have been engaging in previously undisclosed conversations
with Russian officials over the past few months. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has spoken to his Russian counterpart against the wishes of some other top foreign policy officials. Specifics on the number of calls and their time length are unknown. The White House has attempted to keep open a line of communication with Russia even after they invaded Ukraine in February. Russia’s strategy to target energy infrastructure has brought Kyiv on the brink of a total blackout. Plans are being made for a mass evacuation
of residents to an estimated 1,000 heating centers if the city completely loses electricity. Russia has used a similar strategy in the occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson that has become the focal point of the war.
MSNBC anchor Joy Reid raised eyebrows for a comment she made about inflation in a recent broadcast. She claims Republicans taught people
the word inflation and it had not been part of the lexicon prior. Her comments came during a segment where she appeared to be on the ground in Florida. It reflects the upper class position of society’s most prominent journalists and how Democratic operatives are out of touch with the electorate. Prominent liberal and progressive commentators have pushed for more messaging on the economy instead of ignoring it or spinning it in the way Reid did. MSNBC’s rhetoric ahead of the midterm elections is unlikely to reach voters outside of the Democratic camp.
Saagar takes his turn at documenting the decline of cable news before Trump launches his next campaign and the networks get a temporary lifeline. In the span of 72 hours, three of the main news networks announced high profile cuts
that revealed where the business stands today. First, Shep Smith was canned by CNBC after his much watched departure from Fox News in 2019. He gave Fox credibility on the breaking news front and received a huge payday when he left for CNBC. But it turns outs that Smith was not nearly as powerful as people thought and his show flopped
from the beginning. So-called stars are not really stars at all and the high paychecks reflect distorted market dynamics of the cable news business. Another firing came at MSNBC, when race shock jock Tiffany Cross
was quietly let go. She said incendiary things about how racist America is while making big bucks to do it on cable and her Peacock TV streaming show. They have never released the numbers despite constantly promoting the Peacock shows on the cable channel. Cross’s quiet exit demonstrates how little relevance Peacock programming has when people can choose in the bigger streaming market. On CNN, Jake Tapper was moved back
to the afternoon because of his major primetime flop. Like Smith, he’s good at breaking news and has credibility relative to the rest of the network. Once again, people did not watch and Tapper’s primetime ratings were abysmal. CNN hailed his primetime debut as a big time move for the network, and now they are saying it was only temporary. Even worse for CNN, the network’s new morning show debuted to numbers so low it was hard for some media executives to believe. Their new parent company Warner Bros has $66 billion in debt and now they have to cut 10% of the budget of the network. Hundreds will be fired and many anchors will be losing their jobs. It’s an important reminder that without Trump, these networks are zombie organs who will pretend otherwise when he gives them a temporary boost.
After the monologue, Krystal and Saagar ponder how fitting it is that Trump is coming to give cable networks another lifeline as they slowly die. The business model is a dinosaur and the people they think are stars have shown not to be. Maddow and Tucker are the only two real stars left on cable and Maddow is hardly on TV anymore. If one can build an audience on their own, it makes more sense to be free and independent rather than going on cable. All the networks are in managed decline mode because they see the writing on the wall. Trump will rescue the networks in the short term but the fundamentals are not going anywhere.
In her monologue, Krystal revisits the topic of whether Democratic party elites will push Biden out and nominate someone else in 2024. Right now, it looks like Biden and Trump will battle it out again despite many Americans wanting an alternative scenario. But there are some machinations happening on the Democratic side that could indicate a changing of the guard. It begins with Biden’s worsening public performance as shown by the moment where he misstated
how his own son died. This stumble was covered by The New York Times, a mirror image of elite liberal opinion. Prominent NYT reporter Peter Baker wrote the piece for them at the same time as Washington Post columnist George Will’s call for
Biden and Harris not to run again. Will is a conservative establishment fixture whose scathing column created buzz in DC circles. One more elite critique of Biden came in Reuters
, asking if big midterm losses would cause Democrats to pull the plug on Biden. They went on to report about efforts from blue state governors to distinguish themselves nationally and quotes from anonymous insiders giving their thoughts on Biden. All of these articles give a glimpse into the Washington game of jockeying and leaking. What the articles signal is that party elites and donors do not want Biden to be the nominee again. Democratic insiders have always looked down at Biden for his lesser credentials and less polished style compared to Obama and someone like Buttigieg. Similar questions surrounded Biden in the 2020 primary which opened the door for so many candidates to run against him. At the beginning, Biden’s fitness
was up for discussion before the party consolidated around him to stop Bernie. A bunch more articles will come on CNN, MSNBC, and elsewhere about Biden’s acuity and leaks will drop like flies. Polls will flood the zone and anonymous consultants will slam the president. Eventually, the reality of Biden’s strength over the rest of the field will set in and Dems will close ranks around Joe once again. We will see if elites can persuade the base this time around.
After the monologue, Krystal and Saagar express their belief that elites will end up sticking with Biden and the elected Dems will ultimately fall in line. An outsider with a real profile and prolific fundraising would have to come in to challenge Biden. Dems are much more trusting of the media and other institutions than Republicans, making it a greater challenge to disrupt the party. The base has expressed desire for other candidates and elites will generate a pressure campaign against Biden. After a while, they will make the same arguments as 2020 and rally around Joe once again.
Krystal and Saagar give their final, definitive predictions for the midterm elections. Both believe the house is going Republican by a 25 point margin, which the Cook Political Report has predicted. Both agree that Walker will win a close election in Georgia but not enough to avoid a runoff against Warnock. Saagar picks Adam Laxalt to win in Nevada in a tight race and Krystal chooses Catherine Cortez Masto over there. In nearby Arizona, Saagar believes Kari Lake will drag Masters over the finish line in Arizona. Krystal thinks Kelly will hold on with enough crossover support thanks to his individual profile and Masters flailing campaign. Both struggled with New Hampshire and Saagar ended up choosing Bolduc over Maggie Hassan. He bet on the red wave there and Krystal chose Hassan because mainstream polls have her winning. Both predict Vance in Ohio, Johnson in Wisconsin, and GOP candidate Ted Budd in North Carolina. Last but not least, Saagar chooses Oz in Pennsylvania by a narrow margin against Fetterman. He believes Josh Shapiro could lift up Fetterman but the fundamentals are very favorable for Oz. Surprisingly, Krystal also bet Oz because of how the polling has missed in Pennsylvania. Tomorrow night will be very difficult to predict and ultimately we have to see how the votes fall.
Thank you for reading the latest Breaking Points premium newsletter. Remember to look out for live election night coverage featuring the entire BP crew!