Why are Covid restrictions suddenly lifting across the U.S.? Patrick Murray on the changing politics of the pandemic in Democratic states.

Mask mandates are easing, even ending, in a number of the places that implemented the toughest Covid restrictions in the United States over the past two years. Earlier this month, a procession of Democratic governors from states such as New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Oregon, New York, Illinois, Nevada, and California all announced they were loosening their pandemic policies in different ways—even as U.S. President Joe Biden and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continue to support mask usage. “The only science that’s changed in the last two weeks is the political science,” Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said at the U.S. Capitol. “The only data that’s changed in the last two weeks is Democrats’ polling data.” Is that right?

Patrick Murray is the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, which has been surveying American public opinion about Covid throughout the pandemic. Without knowing what’s causing Democratic governors to loosen restrictions, Murray says their decisions do seem to be “getting them closer to where the public has been moving for the past four months or so.” He sees the politics of Covid as having initially favored Democrats, even shielding them from negative perceptions of their messaging on other issues; but now substantial numbers in their constituencies are shifting views. Some favor lifting or easing restrictions. A greater number are tiring of the ongoing adjustments to policy and want consistency. They tend, Murray finds, to say that America should align on preserving some public-health measures but then stick with them—and only them—even if the virus surges or new strains appear. Democratic leaders are meanwhile starting to realize that Americans are caring more about non-pandemic issues as this year’s U.S. midterm elections get closer.

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Graham Vyse: How do you see U.S. public opinion on Covid restrictions changing?

Patrick Murray: It’s been moving in a clear direction: Hardcore anti-vaxxers are being joined by some people who’ve supported lockdowns, social distancing, mask guidelines, and vaccine mandates but are now saying that the ups and downs of this virus—particularly over the past four or five months—suggest it’s time to move on and figure out a way to live with Covid.

In our current poll, we found that 70 percent of Americans agreed with the sentiment, It’s time we accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives. Now, that includes 40 percent who say we never should have had any of these lockdowns to begin with—some anti-vaxxers and some people who got vaccinated but thought that was about all we needed to do. Then there’s another 30 percent who continue to support some social-distancing guidelines but want consistency and predictability in what those guidelines are going to be. Which all puts a lot of pressure on Democratic officeholders, who’ve been counting on their base, which—up until October—was pretty steadfastly in support of whatever guidelines Democrats thought necessary to meet an upcoming surge.

About one in five adults continues to refuse to get vaccinated. Nothing has changed their opinion. There’s a recognition among people who’ve supported vaccine mandates and mask mandates that there’s nothing we can really do to alter that or reach herd immunity through vaccination.

Vyse: Do you see evidence that the results of the state-governor races last year are affecting the way Democratic leaders are approaching Covid policy now?

Murray: If you look at last year’s races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, the pandemic was really the top issue voters were worried about up until September—and voters supported the Democrats’ approach to dealing with it. That dynamic basically disappeared in October, as people took a second look at what was going on with the Delta variant. It allowed voters to focus on issues other than the pandemic. What Democrats in particular are realizing right now is that voters don’t want to be consumed with the pandemic as a political issue. They’re tired of that. They’re exhausted.

In many ways, Covid provided cover for the weaknesses in how Democrats messaged their agenda. When the pandemic began to lift from the public’s consciousness, it drew attention to what Democrats were saying they were going to do—what they stood for. Our polling found that, while a majority of the public supports almost all of the Democratic agenda if it’s described in basic terms, the messaging around that agenda is very off-putting.

For example, a key issue in Virginia was school choice and parental involvement in the curriculum. We did a poll a few months ago where we asked two separate questions to entirely different sets of the polling sample: When we asked if they approved of public schools teaching about the history of racism, we got 75 percent of respondents who were supportive. When we asked if they approved of public schools teaching about “critical race theory,” that number went down to 43 percent. I think the vast majority of people we asked couldn’t tell you the difference between those two ideas. It’s all about messaging, and that’s true of the Democratic economic agenda as well. Republicans have cast it as a socialist agenda, which pits us against them, but when we ask about different elements of the agenda—including the economic-equity elements—it gets majority support.

All of this plays a role in Democratic leaders moving away from their previous stance about how to deal with Covid as an ongoing emergency—the idea that we’re going to have to keep the arrows of mask mandates and vaccine mandates and social distancing in our quiver; we might have to pull them out in the future. The public is saying, No, you have to decide what you’re going to do right now, do it, and just move on.

More from Patrick Murray at The Signal:

“There’s 40 percent of the U.S. public that basically says we should go back to February of 2020 in how we live our lives. Then there’s 30 percent that says we need to pick what we’re going to do in terms of social distancing and how we use masks, decide that’s the way we’re going to act, and then move on—regardless of what Covid surges and variants might come in the future. Democratic leaders are concerned with that 30 percent, because it’s the group that’s shifted. These are people who’ve supported mandates and changes in regulations and restrictions based on new variants in the past. Now they’re saying we need to choose an action and live with it. This is a group that’s been supportive of Democrats, and now Democrats are worried about losing them.”

“Biden started out with fairly positive ratings, specifically on his handling of Covid. In fact, for a while, that rating was higher than his overall job-performance rating, but it started declining in the spring, and now it’s in negative territory, along with Americans’ attitudes toward the entire U.S. federal health apparatus.”

“Public-health authorities didn’t manage to get the percentage of the U.S. public that’s against vaccinations to vaccinate. We don’t have herd immunity. Meanwhile, the government was inconsistent in the way it dealt with the Delta variant, which turned out not to be as deadly as expected. That eroded public trust in federal agencies. People wondered: If they don’t have a handle on this, why are we still living in an emergency state? We’re seeing governors starting to lift restrictions as American opinion about the government’s handling of Covid has gone negative.”

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