When it comes to mainstream politics, I’d say there are two priorities right now. One is preventing the Reaganites and neocons from making a full comeback on the right, and the other is preventing a full totalitarian humanist takeover from the left. The optimal situation is one where these two fight to a stalemate and function as constraints on each other. Virtually every trend favors the liberal side and the Democratic Party. However, the Supreme Court is now solidly under Republican control. The structure of the Congress allows for disproportional Republican influence in the Senate and, of course, the Electoral College makes the Republicans more competitive in presidential elections than they otherwise would be.
A highly likely future scenario is one where the liberals are largely dominant but where the Republicans are an obstructionist force to the implementation of “progressive legislation” in Congress, where the Supreme Court routinely rules against liberal interests, and where Trump or other MAGAists are a constant thorn in the side of liberals and neocons. Hopefully, this stalemate will fuel secessionist thinking on both sides, with the right thinking, “We can never take back America under the present system. We have to secede” and the left thinking, “We’re better off without them” and starting to consider the possibility of independent Blue Tribe republics. The end of Roe would give liberals one less incentive to cling to the federal system. The far left would have one less incentive to cling to the Democratic Party and the far-right would have one less incentive to cling to the Republican Party.
By Peter Weber
The Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision not to block a new Texas six-week abortion ban is “a strong but not final indication that the court will soon overturn Roe v. Wade,” Politico predicts. The three liberal justices and Chief Justice John Roberts each wrote separate, sometimes blistering dissents.
“Roberts doesn’t write this dissent if he’s ready to overrule Roe v. Wade,” University of Texas law professor Steve Vladeck writes. “The fundamental issue — and the question that’s going to loom over [the Supreme Court’s] entire upcoming term — is whether, when the time comes, any of the other five conservatives are going to join him.”
“Abortion rights supporters think they have little chance of persuading Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, or Neil Gorsuch to act against the legislation,” Politico‘s Josh Gerstein reports, but “they still hope that either Justice Brett Kavanaugh or Justice Amy Coney Barrett might side with the law’s opponents if the issue gets before them in a different legal vehicle.”