American Decline

We’re Much Closer to Many ATS Goals, But Is a Civil War on the Way?

Now that pan-secessionist sympathies are rising, how do we prevent this desirable situation of pan-secession from becoming…

May be an image of map and text that says 'Secession Support for seceding from the U.S. to form a new regional union PACIFIC (39%) MOUNTAIN (32%) 33 27 HEARTLAND (30%) NORTHEAST (34%) Dem. Ind. Rep. 35 43 17 39 35 26 43 34 19 Dem. Ind. Rep. Dem. Ind, Rep. Dem.ind. Ind. Rep. 66 50 20 Dem. Ind. Rep. Source: June 2021 watch survey (N=2,750) SOUTH (44%) THE WHY AXIS'

from becoming this undesirable situation of civil war.

Abolishing the system while avoiding civil war is the primary long-range concern.

As many readers know, Attack the System was formed in large part for the purpose of forging a political realignment along anti-system vs pro-system lines, with a populist (the people vs the elites) and anarchist (anti-statist, decentralist, etc) perspective. The main weakness I now see in this view is that I overestimated the commitment to “radicalism” of many “radicals” and underestimated how deeply entrenched “culture war” politics actually are. The culture war is a quasi-religious war about existential values that is led by rival factions of the power elite and not a revolutionary struggle against an entrenched power elite per se (more post-Saddam Iraq than 1776, 1789, 1917, or 1936). Nearly all so-called “radical groups” are merely appendages to one of the major tribal sectarian coalitions.

However, it seems much of what I wanted to see happen is taking place anyway. The empire seems to be slowing cracking and receding internationally, the domestic regime is fragmenting and losing legitimacy, massive lumpenproletarian uprisings have occurred, support for secession movements has increased by 50% over the past decade, and embryonic pan-secessionist actions are taking place, and the drug war is slowly falling, among many other things that have happened in recent times that are consistent with the ATS paradigm.

The main concern I have now is avoidance of a Lebanese or Syrian-like civil war if the system fully collapses like the former USSR, Warsaw Pact, and Yugoslavia did at the end of the Cold War. A civil war would be the worst possible outcome. Everybody loses. I don’t know that it will come to that. We may end up just being a normal country. For instance, 1 in 5 elections around the world is accompanied by violence. Democracy as it is practiced in Latin America, Africa, Central, and South Asia, and the South Pacific is the global norm, not the genteel middle-class societies that people in North America, Western Europe, or Australia are accustomed to. But it’s certainly not impossible or even that far-fetched that a civil war could occur.

Prior to the pandemic, I was very skeptical of the probability of a civil war, but the economic effects of the pandemic, combined with the acceleration of animosity that accompanied it (lockdowns, recession, anti-lockdown protests, George Floyd, BLM protests, riots, the election, January 6, etc.) seems to have made the prospect of a civil war more likely. In the space of 16 months, 20 years’ worth of major events has happened.

Many people are concerned that we are moving toward a Third World model of society.  I would go further and say that’s already happening and is pretty much a done deal for the future. The question is will we have a Third World-like civil war. I used to always say Americans were too lazy to fight a civil war, and that no one would want to risk disruption of internet service. But the combination of class polarization and political polarization we see today is alarming. The further economic conditions deteriorate and the angrier people at rival tribal-sectarian factions, the greater the probability of violence on a significant scale.  When people have nothing to lose economically, but an “other” to blame, is when they start shooting. I have long argued in favor of a much, much stronger anti-imperialist antiwar movement. Increasingly, we are also in need of an anti-civil war antiwar movement.

4 replies »

  1. “The culture war is a quasi-religious war about existential values”

    Yes.

    “led by rival factions of the power elite”

    No. There is no elite faction that supports any sort of “conservative” side in the culture war. Maybe you could say the Hobby Lobby people but they aren’t “leading” anything. There are rival factions of the elites of course but they speak with one voice on cultural issues, some gasbag Republicans pretending to be Christians to get some votes notwithstanding. Trump’s people did away with any of the last tiny remnant of the “religious right” with his LGBT policies and MAGA Drag Queens.

    “so-called “radical groups””

    They are all Fed operations, all of them. Oath Keepers was started by an FBI agent, for god’s sake.

    “lumpenproletarian uprisings”

    BLM was astroturfed. Sure, the rage was real on the streets but that is an example of a “culture war” movement steered by the elites. They are literally, not figuratively, financed by Citigroup and Google, for god’s sake. The leader just cashed out several million and moved to a mansion in the whitest part of LA.

    On the right? Maybe the anti-masker morons and some very legitimate anti-lockdown protests. We can see they were treated as Enemies of the State by both the media and law enforcement. Meanwhile, the BLM/Antifa were given nothing but positive coverage and received zero state repression. Antifa is straight up run by the children of sitting Democratic politicians and it is allowed to do whatever they want. But moron MAGA groups like “Proud Boys” get treated like terrorists.

    There is clearly “one side” here, despite leftist posturing.

    I would love to move back to America and join those Appalachian Militia.

    “I used to always say Americans were too lazy to fight a civil war”

    I think you are completely correct on that one. Right-wing morons love their guns but they will only point them in media approved directions.

    “I have long argued in favor of a much, much stronger anti-imperialist antiwar movement.”

    It would happen on both the “right” and the “left” except the Official Left has very tight measures in place to prevent that, see their shrieking about the non-existent “Red-Brown Coalition.” There are some decent “class first leftist” types but they shut up as soon as they get called “transphobic.”

    Third world population, third world society, third world government. That was the point of the mass immigration. Also, as the leaked documents from Amazon show us, the Elites are very, very aware that “diversity” makes union organizing impossible.

    The Empire is going to be checked by the Russia-China axis. Probably China will take Taiwan and humiliate the Empire and they will resort to traditional imperialism in Latin America. This will cause a huge loss of face at home, but this will just be channeled into some sort of reformism, maybe con GOP, maybe lib DEM, who knows.

    Internally the system is surprisingly stable. We’ll just see a generation of urban crime, just like in the 70’s, and more self-segregation on both class and racial lines.

    • The idea of elite factions, uprisings and lumpen is quite a bit broader than progressive vs conservative in Preston’s view.

      Take the good old furry v brony divide.

      In a civil war one could argue that the furry clan would side with the trans left statists, while the brony defenders of white masculinity would hit the mountains like yourself.

      BUT who’s to say they would join forces and have a orgy in sticky love together against all sides of neo puritanism?!

      Naturally, this could be extrapolated to all sorts of weird subclasses, and in really, we have a real shit show of a civil war on our hands!

      • Here’s the problem. Despite leftist pretense, all factions of the elite – Capital, the State, Media, Academia – all support the Furries and all of them openly repress the Bronies. Despite leftist pretense, there are lots of open Commies in Academia, there isn’t a single “fascist” – not a one – and even some professor that voted for Trump would be immediately fired for “making bodies of color unsafe.”

        Look at the morons in Proud Boys. It’s a Zionist front group that were all about loving Gays and hating Muslims. They got into a few scuffles with Antifa, and they get long prison sentences while Antifa gets profiled in loving puff pieces in the New York Times.

        Leftists are all just posturing, they are the establishment, they are kept pets of the elite, like the guy Matthew N. Lyons. This guy pretends he’s fighting against the state and capitalism while he’s literally cashing paychecks signed by Silicon Valley oligarchs at Google and Obama administration officials. What is he being paid to do? Tell everyone that white Christians are evil sexists, that feminists who don’t want to share the restroom with female penises are “fascists” and of course, Trump is literally Hitler and everyone who voted for him is a white supremacist neo-nazi terrorist.

        So, it’s Silicon Valley Corporate Social Justice, literally paid for by the most elite of the elite, and they don’t have to worry about anyone coming after their money, because hey, they hate Trump too!

        So we see exactly what happens. When the Brony says to the Furry, hey, let’s cuddle, the Furry Force says, “no you can’t do that! Fascism! Racism! Sexism! Antisemitism! Transphobia! The Red-Brown coalition! Hitler!”

        The Offical Left has tight, tight control of the left, making sure that white working class people are the enemy of the Left. Anytime a class first leftist, like say, Aimee Terese, says, “yeah you know white working class people sometimes make racist jokes but you know working class people are rough-and-tumble, let’s meet them where they are.”

        What happens? Aimee Terese is platforming FASCISMS! Deplatform! I’m calling up the ADL to tell Google to shut it down!

        That’s the problem with the left. They are nothing but tools of the Oligarchy, living in a fantasy world where they are “fighting the man.”

        And besides – who the hell wants to hang out with a “crustpunk anarchist who reads a lot of Marx?” What the hell good are those people? They can’t even be bothered to take a shower, much less overthrow the state. It’s just a stupid subculture, a substitute religion, and they can make themselves feel better about being a barista at Starbucks by pretending they’re an “activist.”

        Who was the big bad boogey man of the “Alt Right?” That fat ass named Matt Heimbach. I’ve followed him for years. He literally never actually did anything, except for give interviews to the media about what a radical he is. The media loved it, they needed a bad guy “fascist” and he’s straight out of central casting.

        The Empire is leftist, it the same as the old USSR, they just pretend to be capitalist instead of pretending to be socialists. And the activist left in America is there to make sure the white working class never organizes, because that’s “fascism.” The idiot leftists, some of them don’t even seem to realize it, because they are all a bunch of narcissist downwardly-mobile wanna be professional managerial class but there aren’t enough jobs left.

        Hell, that was basically Weaterman from back in the 60’s, dude.

        The Left will never, ever, ever point to the real ruling class, because not only are they being paid to not do that, they are literally the children of the ruling class.

        The system is surprisingly stable.

        Say, when is Antifa going to protest AIPAC? Oh, right, that would literally be protesting their own fathers. So, let’s go find some plumber that voted for Trump and attack him for being a “fascist.”

        What a joke.

        • I love the depth of your reply, and have no clue about the majority of you references!

          We seem to be entering and era where pointing out problems and hypocrisy has become useless. The opponents are no longer arguing in good faith, and whining about it has become akin to informing your rapist that you would prefer a bit of foreplay.

          The rough sex is part of the deal, and he enjoys it that way.

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