These are my basic thoughts on what the future of the USA is likely to look like:
- Direct American military interventionism is likely to become less common, with the use of international institutions, client states, mercenaries, proxy armies, “dollar diplomacy,” soft power, cultural imperialism, economic sanctions, etc. as the primary means through which the empire struggles to maintain itself. It is likely American hegemony will eventually give way to an international power elite which will then, hopefully, fragment into a multi-order order. Although the latter is a long way in the future if it happens at all.
- The Democrats appear to be positioned to be the dominant party for the foreseeable future. The Democrats are now a coalition of neocons, business and national security conservatives, centrist technocratic liberals, and the cultural left in a way that reflects the full range of ruling class interests. The Democrats will employ a range of maneuvers to create a de facto one-party state for themselves (court-packing, increasing the number of states and House districts, working to abolish the Electoral College, etc)
- The Republicans will increasingly resemble France’s National Front/Assembly in the sense of being a permanent right-wing populist opposition party that can never quite achieve full state power, with the populist base of the party (the bottom 85%) being in constant conflict with the party’s top 15% (neocons, supply-siders, Israel-firsters, Saudi-firsters).
- Class divisions will continue to widen. The main debate in domestic policy (at least regarding economic issues) will likely be between neoliberals and progressives over to what degree the welfare state should be expanded to placate growing civil unrest rooted in widening wealth disparities and cultural fragmentation.
- Cultural fragmentation will continue to spiral. As the cultural left becomes increasingly hegemonic, it will become increasingly authoritarian. For example, the First Amendment will be attacked under the guise of controlling “hate speech.” Religious liberty will be attacked with anti-discrimination laws. The Second Amendment will be attacked for obvious reasons. Due process rights will be undermined in the name of abstract “equality.” Increased dominance and authoritarianism from the cultural left will trigger a backlash from the cultural right, including violence and incidents of terrorism. This will provide the capitalist Center with a pretext for repressing all dissent under anti-terrorism and anti-crime laws that have been inherited from previous regimes, and not only against the right but also against the sectors of the left the ruling class can’t use or co-opt.
- An interesting situation will be expanding cultural liberalism (e.g. more “diversity,” and the decline of traditional state repression in some areas like marijuana laws) with expanding attacks on traditional civil liberties (the ones outlined in the Bill of Rights) and widening state repression under the guise of fighting terrorism.
- Political violence is likely to become increasingly normalized.
Categories: American Decline