8 numbers out of Alabama that should terrify Republicans Reply

This is an interesting analysis of Roy Moore’s defeat from CNN.

Some of this polling data would seem to bear out what I have been saying for quite some time. For around 15 years, I have been arguing that conventional “right-wing” politics of the kind associated with racism, religious fundamentalism, social conservatism, Chamber of Commerce types, or traditional WASP social norms is slowly being killed off by cultural, demographic, and generational changes. Instead, this older form of “conservatism” is being replaced by a new kind of “conservatism” rooted in newer, high-tech industries and a rising upper middle class that is ostensibly “liberal” or cosmopolitan in its cultural outlook but no less to committed imperialism, statism, and capitalism than its “right-wing” predecessors. Obviously, this rising class of New Elites is already dominant in the Blue Zones. However, the influence of the Blue Tribe continues to expand, even in surprising ways. My own state of Virginia was once one of the reddest of the Red Zones, but has now turned Blue.

No state has been more conventionally Red than Alabama, and yet this polling data indicates a significant Blue turn for Alabama as well. It would be easy to blame Roy Moore’s loss on the fact that he is, well, Roy Moore. However, this data shows that Moore performed poorly with virtually every demographic except middle-aged to elderly, rural, white conservatives. Moore lost spectacularly among young people,  minorities, women, liberals, and moderates. It is doubtful that a candidate with similar politics but who was less personally controversial would have done much better. Maybe such a candidate would have won but only by a margin. Also, the winner, Doug Jones, is hardly a “left-winger” but a standard centrist technocratic type, and former US Attorney. It should be remembered that US Attorneys (federal prosecutors) are central figures in the perpetuation of the domestic American police state. It is precisely these kinds of centrist, neoliberal, technocratic, “authoritarian cosmopolitan” types who are our greatest enemy, not “right-wing extremists.”

(CNN)The Alabama Senate race is over. Doug Jones — improbably — is coming to Washington as the next senator from the state. Roy Moore isn’t.

How did this happen? And what does it tell us about the state of the electorate heading into the 2018 midterms?
That’s where the exit polling from last night in Alabama comes in. I spent the morning scanning the data in search of clues for how people feel about the country, the President and the two political parties on the verge of a midterm election year.
My conclusion? There’s a lot of reasons for Republicans to be very nervous. Obviously Alabama is not the US and Moore is not every Republican candidate running in 2018. Still, there are lots of warning signs in the Alabama data for the GOP heading into next year.
Here are the eight scariest data points for Republicans:

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s