Why the US Won’t See a Violent Political Revolution Anytime Soon 2

Because we’re a nation of aging, overweight slobs.

By Sam Harris

Business Insider

This post from Sam Harris, an entrepreneur, engineer, and former data scientist at the U.S. Air Force, originally appeared on Quora as an answer to the question, “Is the United States on the brink of a political revolution?

No. We don’t have enough teenagers.

When I was an officer in the Air Force, I was a data scientist, and at one point we were tasked with determining what level of violence in Iraq could be considered “normal” so that we could declare victory and leave with dignity.

Obviously, the base level of violence in Iraq would be higher than in Sweden, but precisely how much higher and why? These were the questions.

We did analysis on hundreds of factors across centuries worth of data from hundreds of countries to determine what drove the levels of violence in a society. The worst violence levels are obviously during civil wars and government collapse.

We looked at wealth inequality, famine, disease, number of children per woman, infant mortality, median GDP, average GDP … literally hundreds of factors and their cross-dependencies that numbered in the quadrillions — think average GDP combined with median life expectancy combined with infant mortality combined with … you get the idea.

What we found was that the most significant factor was the number of individuals aged 13–19 relative to the number of individuals aged over 35. If the teenage group ever exceeded the over 35 group, violence increased to the point there was a very high chance of civil war. Furthermore, the opposite was true. If the 35+ year-olds outnumbered the teenagers, there was no chance of civil war.

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2 comments

  1. Sam Harris is a true believer in science I see. His numbers crunch so well it clicks a predetermined result in another place with different demographics and situation. That’s the problem with statistics, numbers only tell a story if the variables are studied and understood. This characteristic is why statistics is the most abused form of Math on Earth. I call economics the sociology of Math, so I suppose I could say statistics is the Psychoanalysis of Math. You can see anything in those numbers just by labeling the variables x and y and making them say what you want by just assigning something you want to them. I believe this would be a major category error that Sam is making here, hopefully not on purpose. You see the 35 and older are usually seen as the older generation of middle aged set in their ways guys, and the 18-34 group are the young ones who want all the change. Usually. In a stable society where the older generation is well off and the young ones haven’t got there yet. America is not stable, not by a long shot. 35 and older would probably be the mythical Gen Y or maybe Millennial. Gen Y tells you how dumb generational studies are and especially how dumb the researchers must be. Gen X preceded them. Gen X is actually Generation 10 or the Tenth Generation, because X is actually a Roman Numeral. Stupid people do not know that Tenth Planet is referred to Planet X for the EXACT SAME REASON. These vapid researchers obviously do not know the Roman Numeral System cause they stupid call the Millennials Gen Y. But I digress. Gen X was Reagan Country. Patriots who are disillusioned. The Millennials are supposed to be brainwashed but actually they’re probably pissed if they’re White. They were the first Generation to experience “diversity” up close and personal. The 18-34 cohort is mostly garbage from Third World Hellholes. They are happy cause they can eat and the future is too far away for the dumb to care. Most teenagers are like that but failed genes make it a permanent condition. What it comes down to is basically the young ones here are vapid stupid idiots who have what they want and Gen X and The Millenials are getting pissed. The young usually win cause they’re strong, but here in Western Civilization you can knock down a hundred idiots close together with a submachine gun or one single mine. Numbers haven’t meant anything in Western Civilization since the British Army entered WWI and decided to form up a straight line and march slowly towards German Machine Gun Nests in formation. 250,000 casualties later and numerical advantage is no longer a serious consideration.

  2. I suppose I am one of those aging, overweight slobs…. At age 57 and 275 lbs…. facts are facts… although my manners are still pretty good, relatively speaking…. But I know that war these days is computerized, so I don’t see what my age and weight and lack of pronouncedly visible biceps has to do with the question. The only reason I don’t rise up in revolution is precisely because nobody I know has really a really good, army-sized, collection of airborne drones with machine guns, bazookas, and anti-tank/anti-aircraft weapons.

    I certainly have drones of my own and a few of my friends have one or two of each…. but we all recognize that we’re hopelessly out-gunned…. and the US army and National Guard are too carefully controlled by the establishment to mound any resistance.

    IF you can put me in contact with anyone who’s adequately armed, securely computerized, and well-organized… I will rise up, I promise…. there is nothing left worth living for in the “secure peace” we have in this County…. so we need to fight…. and since most sophisticated warfare is going to be computer managed drone-warfare these days, I think even at my age I’m quite capable of manning and in fact commanding a fair number of warheads…. if the Rebel army has any…. Get real folks!

    The Second Amendment means NOTHING if the people are not equal in force of arms to the government—and we are not….

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