| Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack:
On March 9 of this year, roughly ten days into the Iran war, I made the following points on Twitter:
Trump is desperately seeking to end the war, but Iran has a vote to, and it won’t allow the war to end quite yet for a few reasons:
“Tehran objects to what it would consider a premature ceasefire out of fear that it would only give the US and Israel time to regroup, rearm, and then re-attack Iran. For the conflict to be ripe for a ceasefire, Tehran believes that enough cost must have been inflicted on the US, regional states, Israel, and on the global economy that all states conclude that starting the war was a mistake – and as a result, no state will seek to restart it.
Moreover, if the war ends now, Iran will be in a worse situation than it was before the start of the war. Much of its infrastructure has been destroyed, its missile capabilities have taken hits, its ability to export oil has been damaged, and most crucially, its prospects for sanctions relief have been obliterated. Indeed, who will and can help rebuild Iran under these circumstances? |