| ◼ So now we’ve had a second French and Indian War.
◼ An artificial intelligence researcher sparked panic when he resigned from Anthropic, claiming that developers are advancing their models too quickly and ignoring the risk of their spiraling out of human control. He’s not the first to voice anxiety. Elon Musk, head of the company SpaceXAI, has estimated a 10 to 20 percent chance that the technology will result in human annihilation. The chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI have echoed this catastrophism, which they present as cause for sweeping regulation. Industry leaders may be genuinely unnerved by their own creations, and many are now promising to tap the brakes. They might also wish the government would erect barriers to open competition. Imagine if internet companies had been subject to a licensing regime in 2001. AOL might still reign supreme. To the AI incumbents, losing their lead might be even scarier than the end of the world.
◼ According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls since mid-March, more than 55 percent of the public disapproves of President Donald Trump’s job performance. His unpopularity, combined in some cases with poor-quality candidates, is endangering Republicans in some surprising places. The Senate seat in North Carolina, from which Trump chased the incumbent Republican, looks lost. Republicans also face real races in Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, and maybe Kansas. Even in Texas, their candidate, Ken Paxton, saddled by his own corruption, is behind in the polls. Some of the Republicans’ travails are the price of holding the White House. Even when times are good, the president’s party turns complacent and the opposition angry during midterm elections. Trump has seemingly contrived to make the backlash worse. Inflation was the primary reason he won in 2024. But he has raised prices with tariffs, leaned on the Federal Reserve to do less to fight inflation, repeatedly dismissed concerns about the cost of living, and spent his time on issues that matter much more to him—such as renovating the White House—than to most voters. The military conflict with Iran has raised prices, too, and Trump made no attempt to win public support for the sacrifices it would entail before launching it. Responding to the party’s grim prospects, Trump is promising a $5,000 check to each American if Republicans win. Even if this were a good idea, it would make people wonder why Republicans don’t just send them now. Compounding the puzzlement, Trump says he can send them without Congress. Desperate times don’t call for harebrained measures.
◼ Democrats, meanwhile, are partying like it’s 2019. Back then, the party’s presidential candidates lined up to embrace a government takeover of health insurance that they branded “Medicare for All.” That enthusiasm faded when Joe Biden became the party’s presidential nominee. Now, however, Medicare for All has reemerged. Democrats have nominated a number of candidates who support the idea, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine. The American Action Forum estimates that Medicare for All would increase federal spending by $47.4 trillion over ten years. In 2019, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that such spending would require all income tax rates to double. Moreover, Medicare for All would eliminate private health insurance, which would prevent the 161 million Americans who obtain insurance through their employers, the 36 million seniors who have chosen Medicare Advantage plans, and even the 19 million Americans with Obamacare exchange plans from keeping their coverage. Republicans hoping to gain ground in the midterm elections should consider informing voters of these facts.
◼ The Federal Reserve’s governing committee voted unanimously to raise benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point, up to 4 percent. The decision was necessary and overdue. Inflation has run well above the Fed’s 2 percent target for 66 consecutive months, while employment and economic growth have chugged along. A tightening of monetary policy was the only proper response. The Fed should never have cut rates before inflation was fully tamed, and it ought to have hiked them sooner when inflation proved persistent, but the central bank is now finally on track to restore price stability. This time, it must follow through and finish the job.
◼ Bo French is the Republican nominee for Texas railroad commissioner, a position whose jurisdiction over energy policy makes it more important than it sounds. He tweeted a photo of several students of South Asian descent cheering amid the crowd at a University of Texas at Austin football game, saying, “The problem is now far worse than anyone imagined.” Other Republican politicians criticized him, some vigorously and some gingerly. His online defenders kicked up dust, saying that he had raised valid concerns about the university’s over-catering to foreigners (although he didn’t know the nationality or citizenship of any of those young men), its supposedly unfair admissions standards (which reasonably favor Texans but do not favor those of Indian ancestry), or an overly generous immigration policy (which has real downsides, none of them illustrated in his chosen picture). His dumb and ugly outburst advanced no good cause, and neither have the sophistic defenses of it. |