| On Tuesday, Senate majority leader John Thune told the Washington Examiner that the Senate is “prepared” to confirm a replacement for Justice Samuel Alito before the midterm elections should Alito retire at the end of the Supreme Court’s term this June. If anybody thought the Senate Republicans were going to follow Mitch McConnell’s rule of not confirming a Supreme Court justice in an election year—a rule that McConnell used to block Merrick Garland from succeeding Antonin Scalia but ignored so that Amy Coney Barrett could succeed Ruth Bader Ginsburg—then you haven’t been paying attention to the level of hypocrisy Republicans are comfortable living with.
On Wednesday, Donald Trump offered his own thoughts on a potential SCOTUS opening when he told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News Business that he was “prepared” to name a new justice should the opportunity arise.
Given that everybody with half a brain cell knows that Trump and the Republicans would rush through a Supreme Court pick before the midterms if given the chance, it’s a little weird that Trump and Thune said anything at all. I suppose we can chalk Trump’s statements up to his chronic inability to keep his mouth shut for more than two seconds at a stretch, but Thune is usually a little more reticent.
One possibility is that all Thune is doing with his statement is alerting the always-behind Democrats that a confirmation battle is brewing (not that Thune should be particularly worried that the Democrats can or will do anything to stop him). But I think another potential reason might be to send a direct signal to Alito himself. Thune may be signaling that he’s not sure Republicans will be in charge in the Senate should Alito delay retirement past the midterms. Thune certainly has access to polling data Alito does not, and this might be his way of telling Alito, and Alito’s wife, “Buddy, leave while you still can.”
Helping Thune telegraph this case was Senator Chuck Grassley—but from where I sit, he really screwed up the messaging. Like Thune, Grassley said that the Senate was “fully prepared” to push through a Trump nominee to the Supreme Court, but Grassley also named names. He said he was in favor of one of his colleagues, Senator Ted Cruz or Mike Lee, getting the job.
Folks, I’ve been trying to prepare people for an imminent Alito retirement for two months now. Whenever I talk about it, liberals respond with either “Hmm, that seems bad… anyway,” or “Well, the next guy can’t be worse than Alito, right?” I can tell people about all the horrors of Andy Oldham or Jennifer Mascot or some other Federalist Society judge most people have never heard of, and I can watch the interest slowly drain from their eyes. But when Grassley floated the idea of Ted Cruz being given lifetime power, my social-media feeds blew up like the Supreme Court was on fire: “Lord help us!” “That would be the END of the Supreme Court!” “How can this be stopped?!?” Putting a face as punchable as Cruz on this thing really seemed to clue liberals into what could be about to happen.
Personally, I don’t think Cruz is likely to get the job. But I do think that he would be the easiest person for Trump to confirm. Cruz might get 99 votes in the Senate… because his colleagues hate him and would relish seeing him literally anywhere else.
If Alito retires, the Republicans will try to push through a nominee, and the only thing that could potentially stop them is a human wall of people preventing them from doing their work, and even that might not be enough. It’s going to be a long summer. |