If a precedent is set here, everyone could begin detaining similar vessels. And it wouldn’t be hard to rapidly clear the waters of these vessels via major maritime choke points. A maritime services firm has kindly offered to legally take possession of seized shadow fleet ships and dismantle them (most of these floating rust-buckets should have been scrapped years ago, but instead were used to evade sanctions).

So, the shadow fleet could fall within months, but that creates a new series of problems. That’s 5 million barrels per day of crude going offline very quickly, making global energy markets quite volatile.

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