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Fiscal Trends in Trump’s First Year Back

January 28, 2026
Welcome to The Lighthouse, the weekly email newsletter of the Independent Institute covering politics, economics, current events, and everything in between.
Dear Readers,

This week’s roundup spans foreign policy gambles, domestic power struggles, and the economic incentives quietly reshaping American life.

Craig Eyermann discusses how Elon Musk’s DOGE blazed into the headlines with trillion-dollar promises—but the actual savings so far are more of a “small step” than a giant leap.

Ivan Eland writes that Donald Trump’s dreams of his own Nobel Peace Prize are increasingly unlikely in the grim reality of his second term: from deploying unchecked paramilitary into American cities to the blatant use of imperialist rhetoric to threaten Venezuela to saber-rattling in the Mideast. Even worse, by reviving 19th-century imperialist rhetoric and brandishing the Monroe Doctrine, Trump is gambling at high stakes.

Scott Beyer explains why the Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) system in collegiate sports has been criticized for creating billionaire-backed collectives that are dumping cash and distorting incentives for players at the expense of university programs. He points out, however, that the system is more meritocratic in certain ways than professional sports, and that the apprenticeship is now beginning to pay better than the dream.

Francis Crescia calls attention to how Canada’s push for reconciliation shifts from apologies to upending private property rights—and how that will have serious ramifications.

Lloyd Billingsley points out that while Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his ‘tenant advocate’ aim to dismantle property rights, the battle for the Big Apple is actually a fight for the fundamental rights of every American.

Alvaro Vargas Llosa warns the situation in Latin America is far more complicated than many are willing to admit.

Finally, Caleb Petitt writes about how ‘Made in America’ merchants are facing a shortage, and explains why policy reform is the life raft for the sinking domestic industry.

Happy reading.

Jonathan Hofer
Managing Editor

Top picks this week

Fiscal Trends in Trump’s First Year Back

by Craig Eyermann

If U.S. politicians agreed to restrain government spending growth to match or lag government revenue growth, it would easily improve the nation’s fiscal situation. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely.
Read More

Trump Can Probably Kiss a Future Nobel Peace Prize Goodbye

He may still yet obtain the award again, but in a forever tarnished state.

by Ivan Eland

Although he covets the Nobel Peace Prize itself, President Donald Trump, in his second administration, has dialed up government aggression both at home and abroad.
Read More

Will College Football Players Ever Make More Than NFL Ones?

While it seems implausible, college football now thrives on market competition, while the NFL operates as a cronyist cartel.

by Scott Beyer

While the NFL clings to its “cronyist cartel” of salary caps and draft rules, the “Wild West” of NIL is turning college football into a true free market.
Read More

When Zohran Met Harmeet

by K. Lloyd Billingsley

Mamdani and his new tenant advocate, Cea Weaver, tout the “warmth of collectivism” over “rugged individualism”—setting themselves up for a showdown with the Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon.
Read More

Reconciliation Should Heal, Not Hollow Out the Rule of Law

Canada’s property rights are under serious threat.

by Francis Crescia

Doubts about private property ownership continue to grow in Canada, undermining the legal certainty investors need to put capital to work.
Read More

Latin America—Three Crucial Elections

by Alvaro Vargas Llosa

Think Latin America is a monolith? Think again. The so-called ‘right-wing shift’ is a lot more complicated.
Read More

American Merchants are Facing a Crew Crisis

High labor costs and strict rules are shrinking the U.S. merchant marine workforce.

by Caleb Petitt

While the world relies on global trade, the American merchant marine is hitting regulatory walls and struggling to stay afloat.
Read More

FEATURED BOOK  — AVAILABLE SOON!

The Independent Guide to the Constitution

Original Intentions, Modern Inventions

by William J. Watkins, Jr.

Drawing on a lifetime of experience in the law—as prosecutor, defense attorney, and constitutional scholar—William J. Watkins, Jr., offers a bold, independent examination of the most important legal document in modern history.
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