This lays bare what many people have been saying all along: There’s not much rhyme or reason to Trump’s protectionism. It’s not a cohesive economic theory. It’s not about shoring up critical American defense capabilities or supply-chain sturdiness in the event of war. It’s not about revitalization of the hollowed-out Rust Belt. It’s not about trying to get revenue so taxes can be cut (or so the federal government can work its way out of the debt hole). It’s about…Trump wanting to impose tariffs, and believing contra all logic and evidence that they’re part of the path to prosperity.

Argentina’s election: The results are in. President Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, did very, very well in the midterm elections held yesterday—far better than expected, receiving more than 40 percent of the vote.

The election was widely viewed as a referendum on his progress so far. Argentine voters were deciding whether they wanted to stay the course despite the short-term pain caused by some of the president’s attempts to curb inflation and excess government spending.

Consider Bloomberg‘s illustrative piece on yerba mate, a popular caffeinated Argentine drink (that I happen to drink a lot of). There was a national yerba mate regulatory body, called INYM, created in 2002 in response to a short period of deregulation in which planting limits had been repealed and oversupply had driven prices down, pissing off farmers. It had extensive powers to set prices—until Milei reined it in. The inflation-adjusted cost of the drink then fell.

Now—just like in the early ’00s—there’s been a political backlash from the growers themselves. The courts have also tried to block Milei’s deregulation, but he found a workaround: INYM can’t set price controls until its officials are appointed by the federal government, so the federal government is simply choosing not to do so.

Milei is making the correct and prudent long-term decisions, yet it looked for a moment there like he was in danger of facing terrible short-term political consequences for these policies: In Misiones, where Bloomberg interviewed growers, three congressional seats were contested. (His party ended up doing well there, though not as well as it performed nationally.)

All of this just goes to show: Milei’s agenda is deeply polarizing.

“A big question in these midterms is whether the voters in traditionally Peronist provinces that swung to Milei two years ago would stay with him,” notes Bloomberg. “At Argentina’s border, the strong peso and Bolivia’s weak currency are fueling a contraband boom in a province that shifted toward Milei in the presidential race. Voters in Salta overwhelmingly elected Milei two years ago, but as businesses close or struggle to compete with half-price products flowing over the border, frustrated voters, including Milei’s own supporters, say the illicit trade has never been this bad.” (La Libertad Avanza still performed well in Salta.)

Scenes from New York: I agree completely, and also find it somewhat sad that we’re already doing the “what worked/what didn’t” postgame, since it’s such a foregone conclusion that he’s going to win.