| This, like so many Trump administration moves, would fall far short of libertarian hopes. Consider the cuts Democrats have lamented so far, like “$8 billion in energy projects in states represented by Democratic senators and $18 billion for New York transportation projects.” Why should the federal government be funding such projects when they could receive private investment or be funded by the state and city?
The much-ballyhooed jobs report release delay—it was scheduled to be released by the Department of Labor this morning, but will not be—”is the first casualty in what is likely to be a string of delayed or missed economic data,” reports the Post. “The timing could hardly be worse. Policymakers have been watching closely for signs that a cooling job market, rising unemployment and worsening inflation could be weighing on the economy. The September jobs report was expected to provide a much-anticipated snapshot of the U.S. labor market, after a summer of rapid cooling.”
I mean, sure, I suppose. But we’ve been trapped in a cycle of staggeringly large and frequent revisions, such that the jobs numbers we’re seeing in each release aren’t really very accurate. So does this matter much at all?
Of course, it’s possible that the shutdown, if it continues, “could delay other key economic data too, including inflation reports scheduled for Oct. 15 and 31, and third-quarter [gross domestic product] figures on Oct. 30,” adds the Post. And all those factors combined could make it much harder for the Federal Reserve to decide what actions to take with regard to interest rates later in the month. But it seems like most analysts predict they’ll err on the side of another cut: “First, it would take a solid [September] jobs report to keep an [October] hold in play. If the [September] jobs data are not available, Chair [Jerome] Powell will likely be inclined to push for another ‘risk management’ cut,” writes Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau. “Second, the Fed would want to lean against downside risks from an extended shutdown, particularly if government workers are laid off.”
Besides, it’s not like there’s literally no data to go off of in the absence of official government collections: “Economists polled by Bloomberg expected that employers added 53,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 64,000 added on average over the six previous months, before revisions,” reports The New York Times. “Other labor market indicators generated by the private sector have been downbeat. The payroll processor ADP estimated that nongovernmental employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, while the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that companies’ announced hiring plans so far this year were at the lowest level since 2009.”
One of the great dirty little secrets of every government shutdown—which, again, is a misnomer, because vast swaths of the federal bureaucracy continue to operate—is that everything remains mostly fine, and many functions that the federal government currently performs could be phased out or replaced by the private sector.
Scenes from New York: Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani says he wants to end gifted programs for kindergarteners, first graders, and second graders enrolled in New York City public schools. Half of me is so Waldorf-pilled I don’t even mind: Children should be wandering through Prospect Park barefoot, practicing their whittling, not tested and put on high-achieving tracks at the age of five or six. But half of me is livid: Gifted programs are not the enemy, and leveling is not the goal. We’re not pursuing a Harrison Bergeron world. Letting smart children advance faster, stave off boredom, and foster their love of learning should be a major goal of teachers—not equality of outcome.
Also:
|