Economics/Class Relations

The Night Owl Newsletter for September 18th

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Kiyosaki: Boomers Will Be Wiped Out (From Lear Capital)

Why Seagate Is Wall Street’s New Favorite AI Infrastructure Play

Written by Jeffrey Neal JohnsonA major Wall Street endorsement from multiple analysts recently sent shares of Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX) up over 7% in a single session, pushing the stock to a new 52-week high. While any double-digit price target increase is notable, the market’s decisive reaction points to a much bigger story.

Investors are looking past the analyst data point and seeing a broader signal: the companies providing the foundational infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) are being fundamentally revalued.

This decisive shift in perception suggests that the recent momentum in Seagate’s stock price may be the start of a more significant, long-term trend.

The Analyst Domino Effect

Bank of America’s $215 price target is part of a larger, growing chorus of optimism on Wall Street. The firm is not an outlier. Other influential analysts have recently echoed this bullish sentiment, with Benchmark and Sanford C. Bernstein initiating coverage with Outperform ratings and ambitious price targets reaching $250 per share.

This comes as Seagate’s stock has already delivered a remarkable year-to-date return of over 140%.

This pattern indicates a re-rating is underway. In simple terms, a re-rating occurs when the market moves beyond a company’s historical performance and assigns its stock a higher valuation based on a fundamental shift in its future growth.

For investors, a broadening analyst consensus often precedes sustained institutional investment and can provide strong support for a higher stock price over the long term.

How AI’s Thirst for Data Translates to Dollars

The core reason for this re-evaluation is the central role of data storage in the AI revolution. AI models are voracious consumers of data, and their demand comes from two primary sources:

  • AI Training: Large Language Models (LLMs) and other complex AI systems require colossal historical datasets to learn from, all of which must be stored in data centers on high-capacity hard drives.
  • AI Generation: The explosion of generative AI applications is creating an unprecedented wave of new, unstructured data, from text and code to images and video, that must be captured and stored efficiently, driving exponential demand for more capacity.

Seagate’s fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2025 financial results provide clear evidence of its central role in this boom. The company’s performance shows the AI demand story is not a future projection, but a powerful, present-day revenue driver. Mass capacity revenue from high-capacity drives sold directly to the cloud and data center clients building out AI infrastructure topped $2.0 billion in the fourth quarter.

This segment is the company’s clear growth engine, contrasting with legacy product lines.

This exceptional performance fueled stellar full-year results, including nearly 40% annual revenue growth to $9.10 billion and an impressive non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.10. Just as importantly, the company generated $818 million in free cash flow, providing ample capital to invest in innovation while also returning value to shareholders.

Seagate’s Secret Weapon for Data Growth

Storage technology must evolve to manage the exponential growth of data. Seagate’s answer to this challenge is its investment in HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology.

In essence, HAMR is a next-generation method for engineering hard drives that enables a significant increase in storage density, which refers to the amount of data that can be stored on a single disk.

This innovation is crucial for Seagate’s largest customers, who are intensely focused on Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). By packing more data into the same physical footprint, higher-capacity drives reduce expenses related to real estate, power, and cooling, making them more cost-effective to operate at a massive scale.

By already shipping HAMR-based products and securing qualifications with major cloud providers, Seagate has a crucial head start in deploying the technology required to support more advanced AI workloads.

Putting Executive Stock Sales in Perspective

Recent SEC filings have shown stock sales by several company executives. Investors must consider these transactions within their proper context. Such sales are common across the market and are often executed under pre-scheduled trading plans, known as 10b5-1 plans.

These plans allow insiders to sell a predetermined number of shares at a predetermined time for personal financial management and diversification.

While these filings are notable, the transactions do not alter the fundamental, market-wide demand story that is driving the stock’s re-rating.

Why the Seagate Story Is Just Beginning

The evidence strongly suggests that Seagate Technology is transitioning from a traditional hardware company to a core component of the AI infrastructure ecosystem. The simple truth is that the AI boom would be impossible without mass-capacity storage. The recent wave of analyst upgrades and the stock’s strong performance reflect this fundamental reality.

The company’s guidance projects confidence, with a revenue target of $2.50 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

For investors, this positions Seagate as a durable, long-term pick-and-shovel play on the decade’s defining technological shift.

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3 AI Infrastructure Stocks With Upside After the Summer Rally

Written by Chris MarkochArtificial intelligence (AI) is an all-consuming investment thesis that will last for years, if not decades. For many investors, that means investing in some of the year’s hottest stocks, such as NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) or Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR). However, many investors are attracted to companies that are building the infrastructure surrounding AI.

Think of AI infrastructure like the human body. Semiconductors are like the heart and circulatory system. They supply the processing power that circulates through servers and networks. Without that constant flow, the body—in this case, data centers—can’t function.

But other body parts are essential to a healthy life, and so it is with AI infrastructure. Data center demand is a long-term story backed by significant capital expenditures from many of the largest hyperscalers.

Here are three names that manage different parts of this infrastructure boom. Each stock has had a nice rally at one point in 2025 and has price targets that hint at larger gains ahead.

Super Micro Computer Provides Custom Servers for AI Growth

Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) represents the bones and muscles. The company provides the picks and shovels for AI in the form of customizable servers and racks that can integrate the semiconductor chips from companies like NVIDIA.

This makes them indispensable for hyperscalers that are building out data centers. The entire AI narrative centers around more GPUs, which means more demand for Super Micro Computer’s hardware will increase, not decrease over time. The company believes its engineering-to-order model and rapid time-to-market will help it stave off competition in this market.

SMCI stock is up approximately 48% in 2025, but only about 4% in the last three months. The stock has met resistance at around the $60 level at two different points this year. Nevertheless, that remains the price target of at least one analyst, Quinn Bolton, from Needham.

Arista Networks Provides High-Speed Networking for AI Clusters

Continuing the body analogy, Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) acts like the body’s nervous system. The company provides the network connections that allow AI clusters to work together.

Arista is the dominant player in the data center switching market with its 400G and 800G Ethernet solutions. This is reflected in the commitments the company has from companies such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META).

ANET stock is up 27.8% in 2025, but it’s made a strong move of over 57.5% in the last three months. With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 64x, ANET stock is at a premium compared to itself and the technology sector. However, the consensus price target of $157.88 suggests there is an 11% upside, along with analysts like Goldman Sachs, who have significantly higher price targets.

Broadcom Is the Chipmaker Behind AI Acceleration

NVIDIA may be the dominant GPU name in the sector, but Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) plays a vital niche role. The company provides many AI systems with application-specific integrated circuit chips (ASICs), high-bandwidth memory controllers, and networking chips.

Like the other names on this list, Broadcom’s bull case centers around its partnerships with AI hyperscalers such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Meta Platforms, and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). These companies want Broadcom to design chips that are optimized for AI workloads, potentially reducing their dependency on NVIDIA.

AVGO stock is up about 51% in 2025 and approximately 40% in the last three months. That’s pushed the stock close to its consensus price target and within 10% of its 52-week high.

However, analysts have come out of the gate bullish since Broadcom’s latest earnings report in September. Many analysts give the stock a price target well above the consensus price. The most aggressive target comes from Macquarie, which initiated its coverage with an Outperform rating and a $420 price target.

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Can Advantage2 Help Overcome D-Wave’s Share Price Plateau?

Written by Nathan ReiffShares of D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) rallied by an impressive 94% year-to-date, but a closer look reveals that the firm is in danger of losing momentum. When looking at the 12-month trailing return of an astronomical 1,800%, the company’s performance over 2025 so far is not quite as noteworthy. Worse still, the rally has sharply declined since May—in the last several months, QBTS shares have moved more or less sideways.

Of course, there are some good reasons for this shift. Besides the natural trailing off of momentum after such a significant rally in the last year, D-Wave has faced increasing competition from some major players in the tech space, including NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA), and its mixed earnings report from the latest quarter prompted a modest slump in stock price.

Fortunately for one of the most hyped companies in the fast-growing quantum computing space, D-Wave has a remarkably strong product in its Advantage2 quantum system.

Released in May, it has previously been too early to get a full picture of the impact of this offering on the broader industry.

As time goes on, though, investors may find that Advantage2 gives D-Wave just that—a key advantage in the race toward broad commercialization of quantum tech.

Advantage2 Against Competitor Products

Advantage2 is uniquely suited to complex optimization problems as an annealing quantum computer. This gives D-Wave a compelling and broad set of use cases for this product.

Although some short sellers and skeptics have criticized annealing tech for being limited in the problems it can solve compared to broader gate-model and trapped-ion approaches, D-Wave has demonstrated that there are, in fact, a range of sectors and industries poised to benefit from the optimization work that annealing does best.

The evidence is clear that annealing has broad appeal based on D-Wave’s customers, including GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV), Nikon, Ford (NYSE: F), and dozens of others. Annealing’s optimization efforts can apply to everything from logistics and supply chains to manufacturing, operations management, and much more.

The specs of Advantage2—more than 4,400 qubits, double coherence time, and a 40% increase in energy scale—make the system all the better able to tackle these various problems.

Revenue Generation History and Possibilities

The popularity of the Advantage2 system has helped to drive revenue growth for D-Wave. This was a bright spot in the firm’s mixed earnings report for the second quarter, which saw more than 40% in year-over-year revenue growth even as D-Wave posted wider-than-expected losses per share.

Bookings nearly doubled in that period as well, largely thanks to Advantage2, which remains the company’s primary commercially available quantum system that is not cloud-based.

One hurdle that D-Wave faces in its financials is the significant cost of the Advantage2 system. This remains a barrier to the product’s widespread commercial popularity, which currently appeals primarily to large business customers, governments, and similarly sized organizations of various kinds.

The company will likely need to introduce additional products with a lower cost and more widespread appeal to continue growing revenue and work toward sustained profitability.

Fortunately, this seems to be exactly what D-Wave is aiming to do. A new set of developer tools has been announced in recent weeks, and additional developments in alternative quantum technology, like cryogenic packaging, could all point to these efforts.

The key will be to balance the core revenue-generating Advantage2 business with a diverse set of additional offerings to appeal to the widest possible customer pool.

What to Watch For

Investors looking for signs D-Wave can break out of its price plateau will likely want to see the company continue to build on its history of revenue growth when it reports for the third quarter in November, or when it provides an interim business update in the meantime.

Of course, as powerful as the Advantage2 system is, the quantum industry is developing rapidly, and it won’t be long before this tool is outdated. Therefore, the firm must show it can create and launch products with more powerful specifications.

However, its advantages over some of its rivals give it time to accomplish this.

Quantum computing companies have tended to thrive on hype, investor optimism, and flashy achievements, all of which D-Wave has had. However, to build a business with sustainable appeal, the continued success of the core Advantage2 product will likely be vital.

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The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.
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