Economics/Class Relations

The Night Owl Newsletter for August 31st

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Man Who Called Nvidia at $1.10 Says Buy This Now… (From The Oxford Club)

Auto Tariffs Are Coming Down: 3 Stocks to Benefit Soon

Written by Gabriel Osorio-MazilliAs tariff negotiations continue, most investors will likely refresh their Twitter feeds daily to see what President Trump is shifting to next. While this is great for traders who make up most of the stock market’s caffeine intake, some simply don’t have the time (or stomach) to handle this market roller coaster.

Thinking two or three steps ahead is a safer way to navigate this storm.

Turnover in the market and retail participation are both at all-time highs for this cycle (meaning there is zero patience currently). This also means that those willing to wait and land on a fundamental path will likely be rewarded for their originality while escaping the thick of the weeds.

Three stocks in the automotive sector have the right components for this to be the case in the coming months, especially as President Trump just lowered auto tariffs between the United States and the European Union, these are Stellantis (NYSE: STLA), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), and even Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP), and investors are about to find out why they could rock portfolios in the coming months.

Big Buyers Pressure Stellantis Analysts

The prevailing view on these auto stocks is that tariffs would ruin their business and squeeze their margins, so much so that Wall Street analysts have become complacent with this consensus view. Which is why Stellantis stock carries a consensus view of Hold, though more recent ratings look a lot more bearish.

Michael Jacks from Bank of America says Stellantis is a Neutral valued at $11.7, which is still higher than today’s price. But that’s not what actually matters. What matters is that his previous target was set for $16.5, a considerably lower gap in this July 2025 opinion.

However, other players have taken an opposing view, such as institutional buyers from Amundi. These allocators boosted their Stellantis holdings by 41% as of mid-August 2025, bringing their entire position to a high of $1.1 billion today or 3.6% ownership of the entire company.

That new institutional buying may be a sign that these individuals have noticed the potential benefits of lowering these tariffs. This directly boosts the company’s future earnings per share (EPS) potential and, therefore, its valuation.

Ford’s Assembly Pivot Is Key

Don’t worry, you’re not the only one dealing with the uncertainty this trade war has brought to the economy. Ford’s management decided enough was enough and took it upon themselves to make the right pivots to avoid any future mishaps.

The first step? Modernize the assembly process like Henry Ford did.

Going back to its roots, Ford is now looking to lower the price of their vehicles by directly lowering the cost of making them, and keeping the process within the United States (therefore qualifying for new tax credits and no tariffs).

Ford’s proposition is valuable in a future where tariffs are higher than they were a couple of years ago.

Valuable, though not easy, which is why analysts are refusing to look that far into the future. Today’s consensus view is of a Reduce calling for 10.6% downside in a $10.5 per share valuation.

This is where true profits are made, as investors are willing to bet against the crowd and take on the pain, as long as they trust their initial thesis.

Investors could look to Marshall Wace LLP as a role model, which just started a $212.3 million position in Ford stock as of mid-August 2025, making them the largest institutional holder as of the latest quarter. This early positioning, aligned with the announcement of an upgraded assembly, is undeniable evidence that the dots are being connected moving forward.

If All Else Fails, Choose Advance Auto Parts

Advance Auto Parts’ stock has rallied by 24.7% over the past quarter, following a dismal performance earlier, and this should be enough evidence for investors to understand what the market is thinking right now. If the assumptions and views are set for tariffs ruining the automotive space, then it’s clear that the view favors Advance Auto Parts.

With this in mind, investors should recognize why that is. If new cars, which aren’t assembled in the United States and therefore subject to tariffs, will cost more, then it would make sense for consumers to keep their current vehicles or even start opting for used ones.

This should fundamentally drive demand for the parts offered by Advance Auto Parts. Besides the price action, investors can also note a very real shift in the sentiment. State Street, an institutional player, built up a $111.9 million stake to own 4% of the company as of mid-August 2025.

While State Street was buying, 12.3% of the company’s short interest vanished as well, a clear sign for investors to take home regarding where the sentiment balance is shifting right now for Advance Auto Parts stock.

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1 Company. 1 Factory. 27 Trillion reasons to pay attention… (Ad)

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Tencent Music Stock Outshines Spotify as China’s Music Giant

Written by Leo MillerIf you thought Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) was the best-performing music streaming stock of 2025, think again. Spotify’s performance has been impressive, with the stock up nearly 54% year-to-date.

However, that return pales compared to Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE: TME), a company that one could call the Spotify of China.

In 2025, TME has provided a total return of approximately 122%.

The company has been accelerating its revenue growth, vastly improving its profitability, and gaining tens of billions in market capitalization.

Below, we’ll dive into this name that is finding big-time success in the world’s second-largest economy. Ultimately, is Tencent Music Entertainment Group a stock that investors should consider?

TME Dominates Music in China, Spotify Has Taken Notice

TME is China’s largest music streaming service, with over 550 million monthly active users and nearly 125 million paying users. The firm’s closest competitor is NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) subsidiary NetEase Cloud Music (NECM), with approximately 200 million users. This shows that TME has considerable dominance in the Chinese music streaming market.

Notably, Spotify is not officially available in China, as the platform is reportedly banned in the country. TME’s scale compared to NECM and Spotify’s absence demonstrates its strong grip on the Chinese music streaming market.

Notably, Spotify appears to have recognized TME’s prowess and decided to invest in the company rather than actively competing with it. On page 11 of Spotify’s latest annual filing, it said the majority of its long-term investments relate to TME.

Spotify’s disclosures suggest its investment in TME was likely worth around $1.6 billion at the end of 2024. This is a compelling reason for investors to consider TME. Spotify knows the music streaming business better than anyone, and it made it a point to invest billions in the company.

TME’s Q2 Earnings Show Strong Growth and Profitability Progress

In Q2, TME posted its seventh quarter in a row of revenue growth acceleration, with sales increasing by 18%. This comes after revenues fell by nearly 2% a year ago. The firm also made extensive profitability improvements. Its 44.4% gross margin increased by 240 basis points from a year ago, and by over 1,000 basis points from two years ago.

Additionally, operating margin grew by nearly 460 basis points to 35.3%. This figure is up massively from 21.1% two years ago. The company’s paying users increased by 6.3%, and the firm’s average revenue per paying user rose 9.3%. Overall, shares gained by 12% after the Aug. 12 report, showing that TME had a very strong quarter.

Latest Price Targets See Upside in TME, Valuation Is Well Below SPOT

The MarketBeat consensus price target on TME is approximately $24.50. That figure implies a 2% downside compared to the stock’s Aug. 28 closing price. However, it is worth considering what the most recent analysts’ targets have to say about this stock. Since TME’s latest earnings report, MarketBeat tracked several analysts who updated their price targets on the stock.

Among them, the average target comes in at approximately $28.25. This number flips the script, suggesting that shares could rise another 13.5%.

Investors should also note that TME trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 27x. That appears cheap when compared to Spotify. SPOT trades at a forward P/E of more than 59x, an approximately 120% premium over TME.

Still, Spotify has multiple factors on its side that help justify its premium valuation. That includes having over 150 million more paying users than TME and generating more than three times as much revenue from each paying user.

Additionally, Spotify’s business generates revenue worldwide, while TME essentially only operates in China.

TME: Room for Growth in a Massive Market

Despite its lack of geographic diversification, TME still has a significant runway for growth within China. With over 1.4 billion people, the company’s paying user base only extends to around 9% of the country.

According to a January 2025 report, Spotify had 55 million Premium users in the United States. That’s equal to approximately 16% of the U.S. population of 340 million. This shows that TME still has a long way to go before reaching similar levels of penetration.

For this reason and the others outlined above, investors should consider TME. Its dominance in China and financial improvements are hard to ignore. Spotify’s investment is also a strong sign, and the latest Wall Street price targets are bullish.

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Man Who Called Nvidia at $1.10 Says Buy This Now… (Ad)

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DICKS’s Sporting Goods Stock Dropped After Earnings—Is It a Buy?

Written by Chris MarkochIt’s become a predictable pattern. DICK’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE: DKS) delivered a solid earnings report, but the stock is down following the report. In this case, DKS stock was down 3.79% in midday trading on Thursday.

That’s off its session lows but still reflects the weak sentiment that is plaguing many retail stocks this earnings season.

This kind of “sell the news” reaction highlights investors’ continued concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending and potential risks in the company’s business model.

However, the stock may benefit from seasonal strength and its continued emergence as an omnichannel retailer.

Why Good Wasn’t Good Enough

DICK’s Sporting Goods beat on the top and bottom lines, but the gains weren’t enough to excite investors. Revenue of $3.65 billion was just a shade above estimates of $3.61 billion.

A similar story emerged, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.38 beating estimates of $4.30. On a year-over-year (YOY) basis, revenue was about 5% higher and EPS was flat. That may explain, in part, why investor sentiment is bearish.

Management highlighted strong performance in back-to-school sales, team sports, and outdoor categories, noting healthy same-store sales growth and improved inventory management. However, the revenue number suggests that analysts had largely priced those sales in.

Margins also expanded thanks to operational efficiencies and digital fulfillment improvements, signaling that the fundamentals remain solid.

Beyond the headline numbers, the company announced that it expects to close on its acquisition of Foot Locker on Sept. 8. That will deliver $100 to $125 million to the topline. The company also expects to open approximately 16 House of Sport and 15 Fieldhouse locations in calendar year 2025.

3 Reasons Why Investors May Be Cautious

Despite the ongoing pressure from consumer spending trends, DICK’s Sporting Goods raised its full-year guidance. The company projects full-year comparable sales growth between 2% and 3.5%, an improvement from a prior forecast between 1% and 3%. The retailer also raised EPS estimates to a range between $13.90 and $14.50, compared with its prior guidance of $13.80 to $14.40.

But investors don’t seem inclined to reward a beat-and-raise quarter. Instead, they appear to be focused on three areas of concern.

  • Valuation Premium – At roughly 16x forward earnings, DKS is trading above its historical average. That’s not extreme relative to the retail sector, but the multiple suggests there’s little room for disappointment.
  • Short Interest – Short interest was elevated before the report, indicating that a portion of the market was positioned to capitalize on any post-earnings volatility. The current price action suggests that these traders may be influencing near-term sentiment.
  • Profit-Taking and Technical Pressure – Some investors are locking in gains. Technical factors such as resistance levels and momentum indicators likely amplified selling, consistent with a classic “sell the news” reaction.

Is It Time to Buy the Dip in DKS?

The DICK’s Sporting Goods analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show that Telsey Advisory Group reiterated its Outperform rating on the stock after the earnings report.

It also reiterated its $255 price target, which is 13% above the consensus price target.

However, with DKS stock up 23% since its last earnings report, investors should exercise caution to see if this pullback is a knee-jerk reaction or the start of a broader correction.

Supporting the bull case, the stock chart shows a golden cross pattern, which often signifies bullish momentum.

If the bulls can regain momentum, that could signal the stock is heading back to $220, which is short-term resistance or $230, which was where it was before the recent selling.

However, volatility and profit taking could continue to pressure DKS shares.

In that case, investors should watch a level of $208, which is just below the 200-day SMA. If it breaks that level, it could find support at prior lows around $185 to $190.

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The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.
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Today’s Featured Content: Everyone’s watching Nvidia right now. Here’s why I’m excited. (From Timothy Sykes)

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