The Trump Effect and the EU: Can Europe Still Do Politics?

by Gabriele Segre

The following article is a slightly revised translation of an essay originally published in Italian as “La settimana che lascia un’Europa sconvolta,” in La Stampa on March 7, 2025. Translated by Gabriele Segre and Gabriel Noah Brahm.

This past March’s extraordinary meeting of the European Council concluded a week that may well go down in history as one of “diplomatic revolution.” Seven portentous days began symbolically the Friday before, with a live clash between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office, and continued with a whirlwind of events: from the positions taken by European and NATO partners during the London defense summit, to Washington’s decision to suspend military aid to Kyiv and the high-stakes meeting in Brussels. Each event underscores the rapid acceleration of an ongoing upheaval now reshaping the world as we knew it, auguring change on a scale matched only by the magnitude of Europe’s growing unease about it.

Setting emotions aside, the central question is how that pivotal week tangibly altered not only Ukraine’s fate but that of Europe as a whole. The answer is far from straightforward.

Rewriting decades of strategic and security arrangements on this side of the Atlantic will take far longer than the time it takes to sign an executive order in Washington. Especially when the plans of other global actors remain shrouded in uncertainty: no one knows how far Trump is willing to go or what Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s long-term goals truly are. Gambling on their intentions seems reckless, but the stakes are even higher for Europe: can it play a role on the stage of this unfolding global drama? And if it struggles to take center stage, will it at least secure a supporting role—or merely serve as the backdrop for others’ performances?

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