Economics/Class Relations

Big Social Security Cuts Coming in 2033

July 30, 2025
Welcome to The Lighthouse, the weekly email newsletter of the Independent Institute covering politics, economics, current events, and everything in between.
Dear Readers,

It’s a common trait among states worldwide, including our own, to engage in fiscal mismanagement, make empty promises, and overlook vital policies. Over 150 years ago, Alexis de Tocqueville presciently foretold how individuals would tend to exploit the national treasury for personal gain and negligence, exacerbating issues of waste, delays, and bureaucratic overreach. This week’s articles highlight several instances of this and how they not only affect our finances but also have downstream implications.

Craig Eyermann warns that without urgent reform, retirees will face deep cuts by 2033 as policymakers continue to kick the can down the road.

Also from Eyermann, a rare win for fiscal sanity. After years of runaway spending, Congress codified the removal of some waste, a modest but welcome step in restoring budget discipline.

And, after nearly two decades of delays, ballooning costs, and unmet promises, Eyermann writes that California’s bullet train fantasy has finally hit a dead end, at least federally.

Francis Crescia writes how Prime Minister Mark Carney’s promises for infrastructure and energy reform have stalled amid mounting trade tensions and parliamentary inaction. No budget, no tax reform, no clarity, just soaring debt and grandstanding. For Canadians, the wait for meaningful progress grows longer while their economic future becomes ever murkier.

Lastly, Kristian Fors discusses California’s draconian penalty against the uninsured, a legacy of Obamacare, with fines reaching thousands of dollars per family.

Enjoy.

Jonathan Hofer
Managing Editor

Top picks this week

Without Reforms, Big Social Security Cuts Coming in 2033

by Craig Eyermann

No matter what they do, politicians will be choosing designated losers in reforming Social Security.
Read More

A Forgotten Budget Tool Gets Dusted Off

The Recissions Act of 2025 is an important, albeit small, win.

by Craig Eyermann

After a long hiatus, Congress flexes a long-forgotten budget muscle to claw back a modicum of wasteful spending.
Read More

Federal Funds Yanked from California’s Zombie Bullet Train Boondoggle

by Craig Eyermann

It’s time to bury the zombie bullet train for good.
Read More

Mark Carney and “Elbows Down” Diplomacy

by Francis Crescia

Canada’s path to energy and budget reform stalls amid summer inaction and trade tensions.
Read More

California’s Health Insurance Penalty Undermines Medical Autonomy

Only four states still penalize the uninsured

by Kristian Fors

Forcing people to subsidize the risk of others is not a progressive policy.
Read More

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The 1619 Project Myth

By Phillip W. Magness

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Coleman Hughes, host of Conversations with Coleman, visiting professor at the University of Austin

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