| ◼ New York Democrats certainly made a rank choice.
◼ President Trump pulled the trigger on long-advertised strikes against Iran’s atomic-weapons facilities. With Operation Midnight Hammer—a complex operation involving hundreds of aircraft and naval vessels, several dozen Tomahawk missiles, and 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators—America joined Israel’s campaign against Iran’s nuclear program. The targets included hardened facilities like the Natanz Complex and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. The hardest of those targets, the deeply buried and reinforced Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, has been the subject of controversy since the strikes. A “low confidence” Defense Intelligence Agency assessment of the damage there suggested the strikes had failed to knock the plant out of commission. Critics of the strikes jumped at the opportunity to call the operation a failure, but the DIA’s product—one of many analyses from America’s 18 intelligence agencies—should not be taken as the last word on these strikes. The CIA’s battle damage assessment, for example, aligns with the conclusions reached by the Israelis, the Iranians, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and private firms like the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, all of whom have said that the damage at Fordow and other Iranian facilities is severe. Iran showed us its own practical assessment: It sued for peace shortly after the American strikes. In a display even more impotent than the show of defiance Iran mounted after the 2020 strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran meekly warned the U.S. and Qatar before launching a face-saving volley of missiles at a sparely populated nearby American air base. Trump saw that as an opportunity to de-escalate. He swiftly negotiated a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. The Middle East has undergone a rapid strategic revolution that favors Israeli and American interests, and it appears to have just made another big advance.
◼ Before the American bombing, the most strident anti-interventionist voices on the right and left argued—often in strikingly similar terms—against American support or involvement in Israel’s strikes on Iran. Tucker Carlson and his allies claimed that America would be subordinating its own interests to those of Israel, that any air campaign would inevitably devolve into a yearslong commitment of ground forces for regime change and nation-building in Iran, and that Iranian reprisals would amount to the opening of World War III. It is already clear that Trump was not swayed by these arguments, that American boots on the ground were never on the table, that air power had a significant effect on Iranian capability and incentives, and that Iran’s capacity for immediate retaliation was quite limited. This was a sufficiently humiliating outcome that many of these same voices, at least on the right, are now furiously trying to rewrite history to say that they were fine all along with a limited air strike. Others, such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.), fume that “I don’t know anyone in America who has been the victim of a crime or killed by Iran”—a short memory indeed. There will always be a need for thoughtful skepticism about war and foreign entanglements, but score this one as a loss for one-size-fits-all anti-war rhetoric, isolationist demagogy, and reflexive Israel-bashing.
◼ Zohran Mamdani smashed Andrew Cuomo in the first round of New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, taking 44 percent of first place votes to Cuomo’s 36 percent, and making the tally of ranked choice alternate ballots all but needless. Cuomo conceded. Mamdani won for a very old political reason: He asked for people’s votes, shaking hands and appearing on social media, the modern street fair. Cuomo’s big-bucks TV ad blitz, by contrast, hid him like the Wizard of Oz’s curtain. Mamdani also won because he, and his crucial white outer borough supporters, are, intellectually and experientially, twelve years old. They think rent freezes, free buses, and government-run grocery stores are desirable, and payable by the top-hatted guy on Monopoly cards. Mamdani won, finally, because for a vocal slice of them, hating Israel is cool. The tent people of the Columbia quad are coming to Gracie Mansion, crying urbanize the intifada. Cuomo still has a ballot line, insurance in case of a primary loss, though no one contemplated a loss so devastating. Mayor Eric Adams, the incumbent, is running as an independent, too. For all his laziness and sleaze, he is the only occasionally sensible option. Curtis Sliwa, Republican perennial, is a sturdy local media personality, but no one’s idea of a serious mayor, or even a serious candidate. New Yorkers may be about to learn some hard and unnecessary lessons. |