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• The story behind Uncle Patrick’s Secessionist Breakfast
• Why Californians need control over our own health care system
• Is the US the new Rome? (We keep asking)

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IMAGINE IT SO WE CAN DO IT

California author Dave Eggers’ latest story has a not-so-subtle connection with the Independent California Institute

“Well,” Daniel said, “as Patrick noted, we’re from the California Independence Coalition. I’m the chief strategist, and Franklin is the director of research and policy. As you probably inferred, we’re in favor of California either seceding to become an independent nation, or somehow attaining a degree of autonomy that would have all the benefits of nationhood.”

In 2017, Dave Eggers invited the California Freedom Coalition’s chief strategist, Dr. Timothy Vollmer (now ICI vice chair) and their director of research and policy, Coyote Marin (now ICI executive director) for a chat at the now-closed California Historical Society in San Francisco. His request: help him understand what California independence might look like, so he could write a work of fiction about it.

Apparently, nothing became of it—until now.

Even the title of the story is likely a nod to Coffee With Secessionists, a series of meetups Tim and Coyote held in the erstwhile cafe of Borderlands Books, at 870 Valencia St., San Francisco. Yep, that’s in the same block as 826 Valencia, a writing non-profit that Eggers co-founded.

Want to work for the best California independence think tank there is?

Please check out our Volunteer Jobs page and email director@ic.institute if you see a good fit!

Make sure to read the next article, written by our newest volunteer!

HEALTH CARE FOR CALIFORNIANS

What if California broke away from America’s broken health care system?

ICI original content: What happens if California breaks away on its own? There is a lot that has to be considered, but it could lead to a better and more equitable health system.

J. Helton, PhD, CMA, CFE, FHFMA, Independent California Institute volunteer

There are a lot of different ways that California could organize health care to be more efficient – providing care to all, while still maintaining the essence of business that we need in a free market society like ours. Many such arguments get overwhelmed by the outcry about “government health care”. It need not be that way!

Were California to become an independent nation, health care would be able to survive and could even be improved when freed from the influence of Washington and corporate health care interests. This article poses just a couple of ideas that have been mentioned as options to be used as models for the health care system in an independent California. There may be others out there. But the key point is that an independent California would have the resources and the critical mass necessary to operate a sustainable, fair, and efficient health care system that meets the needs of all its citizens. Paying for health care would be no more burdensome than it is now while potentially giving so much more back to Californians in value and economic security, knowing that health care needs can be met.

California has a lot to lose if Trump slashes Medicaid. Seniors, kids and more could face coverage cuts

Almost 15 million Californians have health care coverage through Medi-Cal, a program that stands to lose billions of dollars if Republicans follow through on proposed cuts.

Ana B. Ibarra, CalMatters

Perhaps no state has more to lose than California in the federal budget proposal House Republicans passed this week.

That spending plan sets up significant cuts to Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income people. California has taken just about every route and opportunity to expand the Medicaid program. Today, 14.9 million Californians are enrolled in it, and federal funding cuts would almost certainly roll back services and coverage for some of them.

At this point, it’s not clear which Medicaid services would be cut or how many people exactly would lose coverage because lawmakers can hit the spending reductions in a number of ways.

Still, enrollees, health advocates and providers in California and across the country are now grappling with what the cuts would mean for them and the people they care for. In press conferences and online meetings, they’ve called the proposed cuts a “five-alarm fire” and Republicans’ vote “the ultimate betrayal” of their constituents.

The importance of comprehensive health benefits for all low-income Californians

California’s historic expansion of coverage to undocumented individuals has not only brought the state closer to universal coverage, but has also reduced racial disparities in health coverage. However, this progress is at risk due to a new state budget proposal that would curtail Medi-Cal benefits for certain immigrants, ahead of additional severe federal cuts to Medicaid being considered.

Laurel Lucia,Miranda Dietz, and Alexis Manzanilla, UC Berkeley Labor Center

Over the last decade, California has expanded access to Medi-Cal to all low-income Californians, beginning by removing immigration-based exclusions for children in 2016 and then by gradually expanding coverage to adults of all ages by 2024. As a result, immigrants who were previously eligible only for costly emergency care are now eligible for comprehensive health benefits including primary and preventive care, and care for chronic conditions. Today, 1.6 million undocumented Californians, including many low-wage workers who are not offered affordable coverage by their employers, are enrolled in full Medi-Cal benefits using state funds.

In addition to introducing premiums, the budget proposal also seeks to freeze new Medi-Cal enrollment for undocumented adults ages 19 and up, beginning in 2026. The combination of these two policies means that if enrollees cannot afford to pay their premiums, they will lose their Medi-Cal coverage and be unable to re-enroll. These provisions would spur a major erosion of the program that would leave hundreds of thousands of Californians, and potentially over 1 million over the longer-term, without access to health care.

California could lose up to 217,000 jobs if Congress cuts Medicaid, analysis says

California could lose up to 217,000 jobs if Congress cuts Medicaid, according to a policy brief by the UC Berkeley Labor Center

María G. Ortiz-Briones, Fresno Bee

About two-thirds of the lost jobs (up to 145,000 jobs) would be in health care sectors, including jobs at hospitals, clinics, nursing homes, insurance companies, and home care, according to the policy brief.

The state could expect to see between $10 billion and $20 billion fewer federal dollars per year coming to the state’s Medi-Cal program, a key pillar to California’s health care system. More than one-third of the state’s population is covered by Medi-Cal.

According to the Labor Center, approximately 2.65 million Californians (14% of the state’s workforce) were employed in a range of health care sectors.

Did you know:

• 76% of Californians 76% of respondents want to double the maximum size of the Rainy Day Fund, to reduce California’s dependence on the federal government during a major natural disaster

  or economic downturn.

CONGRESS MOVES TO VOID CALIFORNIA RULES

US Senate blocks California’s electric car mandate in historic vote

Overruling parliamentarian, the U.S. Senate voted today to block California’s landmark mandate phasing out gas-powered cars, dealing a substantial blow to the state’s aggressive transition to electric vehicles.

The decision to revoke three waivers that the Biden administration granted to California could upend the state’s decades-long efforts and authority to clean up its air pollution — the worst in the nation — and reduce greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

Today’s move by the Senate — following a vote in the House last month — sets the stage for what is likely to become a high-stakes legal and political battle between California and the Trump administration.

And right on cue, California sues

California Says ‘See You In Court’ After EV Rules Rolled Back

Suvrat Kothari, Inside EVs

California’s decades-long crusade against air pollution and its ambitious plan to fully electrify its roads took a gut punch this week. In a 51-44 vote, the Republican-led Senate moved to overturn the state’s landmark plan to end sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035.

But ending California’s 2035 gas car ban using the Congressional Review Act seems to be set on murky legal foundations. So California Attorney General Rob Bonta said the state is fighting back, marking its 23rd lawsuit against the Trump administration this year.

BUDGET AND TAXES

Rep. Young Kim rejects SALT cap proposal of $30,000, calling it a ‘slap in the face’

The Republican lawmaker says her preferred SALT deduction cap would be $62,000

Alejandro Lazo and Alejandra Reyes-Velarde, CalMatters

The decision to revoke a waiver that the Biden administration granted to California could upend the state’s decades-long efforts and authority to clean up its air pollution — the worst in the nation — and reduce greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

The move by the Senate — following a vote in the House last month — sets the stage for what is likely to become a high-stakes legal and political battle between California and the Trump administration.

Under California’s mandate, 35% of new 2026 model cars sold in the state must be zero-emissions, ramping up to 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. It builds on decades of tightening emissions standards for cars sold in the state.

California officials may now have to rely, at least temporarily, on voluntary efforts to clean up cars and trucks in order to meet federal health standards for smog and soot. For instance, state officials could offer financial incentives or rebates to persuade manufacturers to make electric cars and consumers to buy them. The state, however, faces a $12 billion deficit.

Californians would lose AI protections under bill advancing in Congress

House Republicans want to ban state AI regulations for 10 years. California leaders are alarmed.

Khari Johnson, CalMatters

House Republicans moved to cut off artificial intelligence regulation by the states before it can take root, advancing legislation in Congress that, in California, would make it unlawful to enforce more than 20 laws passed by the Legislature and signed into law last year.

The moratorium, bundled in to a sweeping budget reconciliation bill this week, also threatens 30 bills the California Legislature is currently considering to regulate artificial intelligence, including one that would require reporting when an insurance company uses AI to deny health care and another that would require the makers of AI to evaluate how the tech performs before it’s used to decide on jobs, health care, or housing.

The California Privacy Protection Agency sent a letter to Congress Monday that says the moratorium “could rob millions of Americans of rights they already enjoy” and threatens critical privacy protections approved by California voters in 2020, such as the right to opt out of business use of automated decisionmaking technology and transparency about how their personal information is used.

Los Angeles has a Donald Trump problem. It’s making the city’s bad budget even worse

Trump’s actions are dramatically compounding the burdens on local coffers statewide, and Los Angeles, where tourism and trade are major generators of economic life, is being hit especially hard.

Jim Newton, CalMatters

Take the Port of Los Angeles, the main port of entry for trade with Asia. Some 40% of all imported goods pass through the L.A. and Long Beach complex. When the U.S. president launches a trade war with China and the rest of the world, the port feels the impact, especially when the president’s China tariffs bounce from 10% to 20% to 25% to 104% to 145% to 30% — as they did over just the past three months.

Trump’s bluster has affected foreign tourism across the United States, but it has had especially tough implications for Los Angeles. The three nations that provide the most tourists to Los Angeles are Mexico, Canada and China. Visits from all three have dropped in 2025, with Mexican tourism off 24% and Canadian visits down a whopping 74%, plunging in the face of President Trump’s repeated and condescending demand that our northern neighbor join the United States as its 51st state.

Overall, Yaroslavsky said the city of Los Angeles now projects a 25-30% decline in tourism for 2025. That means comparable reductions in the city’s share of hotel occupancy taxes. Restaurants, car services and tourist attractions all are braced for hits, too.issues at the federal level that are having an effect.” But he said Newsom is “always overly optimistic” in his budget projections, pointing to the Medi-Cal shortfall and a minimum wage increase for health care workers that took effect last year.

Trump tax bill details: Measure passed by House to have outsize impact on Californians

Legislation that would blow a hole in California’s health care spending, disproportionately tax Californians and neuter the state’s ability to regulate artificial intelligence passed the House early Thursday

Shira Stein, SF Chronicle

The House-passed resolution would cut nearly $700 billion from Medicaid and $300 billion from federal nutrition assistance, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which also estimated the states would spend an additional $78 billion, on net, to account for those cuts. Changes Republican leadership made to the bill Wednesday to gain the support of more conservative lawmakers were expected to deepen those cuts.

The biggest concern for lawmakers in Sacramento is the effects the bill will have on the state’s budget if people are kicked off Medicaid. The House-passed resolution would substantially reduce federal spending on Medicaid by imposing more scrutiny on enrollees and health care providers, including twice-yearly eligibility checks, reducing funding for states that provide insurance to undocumented immigrants, and establishing work requirements — leaving states to fill the gaps.

THE DECLINE AND . . .FALL? . . . OF THE U.S.

America is in a late republic stage like Rome

Niall Ferguson: History suggests republics don’t last more than 250 years.

Nathan Gardels, Noema Magazine

If I could strike a very pessimistic note for a moment, there is some sense of being in the late republic in America today, by which I mean that the institutions of the republic are being corroded by a latent civil war in which the stakes of political defeat become too high. That’s something of what eroded the Roman Republic and paved the way to the Empire.

My sense is that history has always been against any republic lasting 250 years. So this American republic is in its late republican phase with the intimations of empire, to bring our conversation back to where it began. That is the thing I worry about most as an American.

Fascism is here. Trust us.

We’re experts in fascism. We’re leaving the US.

Marci Shore, Timothy Snyder, and Jason Stanley, NY Times opinion video

Legal residents of the United States sent to foreign prisons without due process. Students detained after voicing their opinions. Federal judges threatened with impeachment for ruling against the administration’s priorities.

In this Opinion video, Marci Shore, Timothy Snyder and Jason Stanley, all professors at Yale and experts in authoritarianism, explain why America is especially vulnerable to a democratic backsliding — and why they are leaving the United States to take up positions at the University of Toronto.

Their motives differ but their analysis is the same: ignoring or downplaying attacks on the rule of law, the courts and universities spells trouble for our democracy.

Adam Nagourney on the endangered California Dream

Even as the state has grown into the world’s fourth-largest economy, the promise of reinvention that defined the Golden State feels increasingly elusive.

California Sun podcast

Adam Nagourney, a veteran New York Times reporter based in Los Angeles, wrote recently about whether the California Dream had become a mirage. Even as the state has grown into the world’s fourth-largest economy, the promise of reinvention that defined the Golden State feels increasingly elusive. As young people flee, wildfires destroy neighborhoods, and a hostile White House turns its back, Nagourney believes California is still resilient and capable of that dream.

IN OTHER NEWS

California school enrollment continues to drop as poor and homeless student numbers rise

California public school enrollment has declined for the seventh straight year and the number of students from low-income and homeless families has increased as many school districts throughout the state face financial pressures to downsize.

Howard Blume and Jenny Gold, LA Times

Statewide, perhaps the most stark figure is a comparison between enrollment in 12th grade — 488,295 students — and in 1st grade — 384,822. That’s a more than 20% difference between the size of the class leaving school and the size of the class beginning its trek through the public school system.

One encouraging note is the growing number of students in transitional kindergarten, a new grade that serves 4-year-olds.

Public school enrollment for the current school year, officially collected last fall but released Wednesday, totaled 5,806,221 students, a decrease of 31,469 students or .54% from the prior year, according to the California Department of Education.

“These losses largely reflect the fact that there are now substantially fewer school-age children in the state,” said Thomas Dee, a Stanford University education professor and economist. “This demographic decline is due to both lower birth rates and net migration of families with children out of California — e.g., due to housing costs and the growth of work-from-home employment.”

The Great Food Bank Robbery: Hungry Californians face losing their daily bread

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year has generated more attention for his walkback of Medi-Cal expansions than anything else, but tucked in among the many proposed cuts is a small stunner: a nearly 90% reduction in funding for a state program called CalFood, from $60 million to $8 million a year.

Mark Kreidler, Capital and Main

CalFood, run by the nonprofit California Association of Food Banks, allocates the state funds to its members — more than 40 up and down the state — to buy food from California farmers to distribute to those in need. The fresh food winds up in grocery bags at places like Home Church, a distribution point for the participating Yolo Food Bank.

This isn’t the only way that the food banks operate. They’ve traditionally received nearly a quarter of their food supply from federal commodity programs, and more is donated by farms and rescued from stores with surplus food that’s nearing an expiration date or doesn’t meet certain cosmetic standards for sale.

But the state funding for CalFood is a direct line. It buys fresh meat, fruit and vegetables specifically from California farms and producers for people who need it, and the money is often used to purchase both high protein food and culturally relevant items like tortillas, chilis and pita bread.

Last year, CalFood funding accounted for 37% of food banks’ budget for such purchases — and in rural areas, it’s often a much larger percentage than that.

Five Fast Facts on the Cost of Living in California

Today, worries about a recession and trade war have residents of the Golden State even more on edge. Amid these concerns, what do we know about some of the key costs for Californians?

Stephanie Barton, Public Policy Institute of California

1. Housing is still expensive.
2. Food takes a big bite out of budgets.
3. Energy, utilities, and fuel have spiked.
4. Public college tuition is still reasonable.
5. Health insurance is available to most—but spending on health care is similar to other states.

Homelessness hits record high in California, jumps dramatically in rest of US

California lawmakers have invested tens of billions of dollars to support homelessness programs in recent years. Last year, a statewide audit found that the state lacked sufficient information to assess the effectiveness of these investments.

Sean Cremin, Public Policy Institute of California

Californians have consistently cited homelessness as a top issue facing the state, and in 2024, homelessness reached record highs. Of the nation’s 771,500 people experiencing homelessness, over 187,000 (24%) were in California. Two in three were unsheltered, accounting for almost half of the country’s unsheltered population.

However, homelessness grew at a higher rate in the nation (18%) than in California (3%) from 2023 to 2024, driven by a 25% jump in sheltered homeless in the US compared to 9% in California. Unsheltered population growth in the US (7%) also outpaced California (0.4%), reversing the previous decade’s trend of larger increases in California.

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